The Extreme Weather pcMEL

Below are links to resources that will help students use the Extreme Weather pcMEL and learn more about fundamental scientific principles related to climate and weather.

Overview

This article provides an introduction to the Extreme Weather build-a-MEL (baMEL). It is useful even if you are using the Extreme weather pcMEL with your students. The primary difference between the pcMEL and the baMEL is that with the pcMEL students are given two models and four lines of evidence in a preconstructed diagram where as with the baMEL students choose two models from three and select four lines of evidence from eight to create their own MEL diagram.

Extreme Weather Events and the Climate Crisis (Acrobat (PDF) 223kB Feb8 21)

Next Generation Science Standards Performance Expectations

MS-ESS3-2: Earth and Human Activity

• Analyze and interpret data on natural hazards to forecast future catastrophic events and inform the development of technologies to mitigate their effects.

HS-ESS3-4: Earth and Human Activity

• Use a model to describe how variations in the flow of energy into and out of Earth systems result in changes in climate.

The Models

Model A: Increases in extreme weather events are linked to climate change. Current climate change is mainly caused by human activities, such as fossil fuel use.
Model B: Over time, increases and decreases in extreme weather events are mainly caused by changes in Earth's orbit around the Sun.

Student Handouts

• Extreme Weather pcMEL Model Plausibility Ratings (Acrobat (PDF) 41kB Jul31 24)
• Extreme Weather pcMEL Diagram (Acrobat (PDF) 117kB Jul31 24)
• Explanation Task (Acrobat (PDF) 52kB May6 24)

Lines of Evidence

Evidence #1: Since 2000, there have been more intense, extreme, weather events around the world. Record rainfall fell in Europe. The southeastern United States had the most active month of tornadoes. The decade from 2000 to 2010 was the warmest ever during the past 1000 years.
Evidence #2: Frequency and size of large wildfires have increased in the Western U.S. since 1970. Average spring and summer temperatures have also risen in the Western U.S. during this time.
Evidence #3: In the last 100 years, global temperatures have increased. In that same time period, heavy precipitation events have also increased.
Evidence #4: Earth's orbit is elliptical. But, the shape of the ellipse is almost a perfect circle. In the Northern Hemisphere, Earth is slightly closer to the Sun in winter than in summer.

Student Handouts

• Extreme Weather pcMEL - Evidence Texts Color (Acrobat (PDF) 1.2MB Jul31 24)
• Extreme Weather pcMEL - Evidence Texts BW (Acrobat (PDF) 676kB Jul31 24)

Lateral Reading (LR) Resources

What does it mean for a source to be credible? Why should we investigate whether a source is credible before we read it? How do we decide whether online sources are credible? Use lateral reading to find out.

Use lateral reading to evaluate the credibility of two sources related to extreme weather.

This LR Activity connects to Evidence #2 above: Frequency and size of large wildfires have increased in the Western U.S. since 1970. Average spring and summer temperatures have also risen in the Western U.S. during this time.

Use the LR Guiding Questions to evaluate the credibility of each source.

• LR Guiding Questions (Acrobat (PDF) 28kB Jun8 23)
• Source #1: The 2015 Wildfire Season Set an Ominous Record
  Show me information about the source
  Hide
  More credible. Climate Central is a non-profit research and news reporting website specializing in climate science, especially as it relates to anthropogenic climate change. Climate Central's work has been taken up and distributed by news organizations such as NPR and the New York Times.
• Source #2: U.S Wildfires
  Show me information about the source
  Hide
  Less credible. Climate at a Glance is a website that publishes original research and reporting that disputes the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change. The website is managed by the Heartland Institute, a Koch-funded libertarian think tank that has also promoted "research" in defense of tobacco smoking and non-renewable energy initiatives.

Other Resources

This Plausibility Ranking Task (PRT), which may be completed prior to using any MELs, helps students to understand the role of evidence in supporting or refuting models.

• Plausibility Ranking Task (Acrobat (PDF) 76kB May6 24)

Virtual MEL

The Google Drive folder below contains MEL resource documents in the Google formats. In order to maximize the flexibility of our activities, the MEL Project Team wanted to make more resources compatible with virtual settings. We have made our MEL scaffolds available in Google formats, so that they can be copied, modified, and uploaded more easily on a variety of platforms and devices. Please note that to access all the materials for each MEL scaffold, you will need a Google account. View the README file first.

• README First Instructions & FAQ (Acrobat (PDF) 70kB May24 21)
• Virtual Extreme Weather MEL Resource Documents in Google Drive

Digital Resources

This site on Extreme Weather from the National Climate Assessment provides an introduction to extreme weather events, including heat waves, droughts, heavy downpours, floods, hurricanes, and other storms.