The Extreme Weather baMEL

The Extreme Weather baMEL asks students to weigh the connections between evidence and alternative explanations about the relationship between extreme weather and climate change. Extreme weather is a critical environmental issue facing Earth and its inhabitants.

Below are links to resources that will help students use the Extreme Weather baMEL and learn more about fundamental scientific principles related to climate and weather.


This article provides an introduction to the Extreme Weather build-a-MEL (baMEL). It is useful even if you are using the Extreme weather pcMEL with your students. The primary difference between the pcMEL and the baMEL is that with the pcMEL students are given two models and four lines of evidence in a preconstructed diagram where as with the baMEL students choose two models from three and select four lines of evidence from eight to create their own MEL diagram.

Extreme Weather Events Article Cover
Extreme Weather Events and the Climate Crisis (Acrobat (PDF) 223kB Feb8 21)

Next Generation Science Standards Performance Expectations

MS-ESS3-2: Earth and Human Activity

  • Analyze and interpret data on natural hazards to forecast future catastrophic events and inform the development of technologies to mitigate their effects.

HS-ESS3-4: Earth and Human Activity

  • Use a model to describe how variations in the flow of energy into and out of Earth systems result in changes in climate.

The Models

Model A: The number and strength of extreme weather events vary naturally. Human activities release carbon in the atmosphere. Yet, plants and oceans absorb any carbon increases.
Model B: Increases in extreme weather events are linked to climate change. Current climate change is mainly caused by human activities, such as fossil fuel use.
Model C: Over time, increases and decreases in extreme weather events are mainly caused by changes in Earth's orbit around the Sun.

Student Handouts

Lines of Evidence

Evidence #1: Since 1950, Earth's atmosphere and oceans have changed. The amount of carbon released to the atmosphere has risen. Dissolved carbon in the ocean has also risen. More carbon has increased ocean acidity and coral bleaching.
Evidence #2: From 1910 to 1995, record rainfall events increased across the United States. Over the same time period, there was a sharp increase in the amount of carbon released to the air. Much of this carbon comes from fossil fuel use.
Evidence #3: Ocean sea surface temperatures have increased since about 1970. In the North Atlantic, tropical storm power has also increased over this same time period. A storm's power depends on its strength and how long it lasts.
Evidence #4: Since 2000, there have been more intense, extreme, weather events around the world. Record rainfall fell in Europe. The southeastern United States had the most active month of tornadoes. The decade from 2000 to 2010 was the warmest ever during the past 1000 years.
Evidence #5: Frequency and size of large wildfires have increased in the Western U.S. since 1970. Average spring and summer temperatures have also risen in the Western U.S. during this time.
Evidence #6: In the last 100 years, global temperatures have increased. In that same time period, heavy precipitation events have also increased.
Evidence #7: Arctic Ocean sea ice extent has declined, with the Arctic warming at a pace two to three times the planet's average. Over the last decade, record cold temperatures and snowfall have occurred in Europe and Asia.
Evidence #8: Earth's orbit is elliptical. But, the shape of the ellipse is almost a perfect circle. In the Northern Hemisphere, Earth is slightly closer to the Sun in winter than in summer.

Student Handouts

Other Resources

This Plausibility Ranking Task (PRT), which may be completed prior to using any MELs, helps students to understand the role of evidence in supporting or refuting models.

Virtual baMEL

The Google Drive folder below contains MEL resource documents in the Google formats. In order to maximize the flexibility of our activities, the MEL Project Team wanted to make more resources compatible with virtual settings. We have made our MEL scaffolds available in Google formats, so that they can be copied, modified, and uploaded more easily on a variety of platforms and devices. Please note that to access all the materials for each MEL scaffold, you will need a Google account. View the README file first.

Digital Resources

Extreme Weather NCA
This site on Extreme Weather from the National Climate Assessment provides an introduction to extreme weather events, including heat waves, droughts, heavy downpours, floods, hurricanes, and other storms.