Recent Research on the Hurricane - Climate Change Connection

General References

'Has Global Warming Affected Atlantic Hurricane Activity?'] This review by Thomas Knutson of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory address this question in the context of published research findings. His conclusions are:

i) It is premature to conclude that human activity--and particularly greenhouse warming--has already had a discernible impact on Atlantic hurricane activity.
ii) It is likely that greenhouse warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense on average and have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes.

Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity - a synopsis page by MIT's Kerry Emanuel that includes a FAQ about global warming and hurricanes, an essay that summarizes recent research, and a reference list.

Interview with Kerry Emanuel from the public radio show Here and Now on September 10, 2008.

Summary Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change (Acrobat (PDF) 75kB Sep10 08) by the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones-VI Participants

Real Climate's Hurricanes and Climate Change section summarizes some recent publications, policy and and research.

Hurricane and Cyclone News from Science Daily

Recent Publications

Elsner, J.B. (2007). "Climatology: Tempests in Time." Nature 447, 647-649.

Elsner, J.B., J.P. Kossin, and T.H. Jagger (2008). "The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones." Nature 455, 92-95.

Emanuel, K. (2005). Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

Hoyos, C.D., P.A. Agudelo, P.J. Webster, J.A. Curry (2006). Deconvolution of the Factors Contributing to the Increase in Global Hurricane Intensity. Science, 312(5770), 94-97.

Knutson, T.R., J.J. Sirutis, S.T. Gamer, G.A. Vecci, and I.M. Held (2008). "Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions." Nature Geoscience, 1, 359-364.

Knutson, T.R. and Tuleya, R.E. (2004). Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization. J. Clim. 17, 3477-3495.

Kossin, J.P., K.R. Knapp, D.J. Vimont, R.J. Murnane, and B.A. Harper (2007), A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L04815.

Landsea, C.W., B.A. Harper, K. Hoarau, J.A. Knaff (2006). Can We Detect Trends in Extreme Tropical Cyclones? Science, 313(5786), 452 - 454.

Liu, K. and M.L. Fearn (2000). Reconstruction of Prehistoric Landfall Frequencies of Catastrophic Hurricanes in Northwestern Florida from Lake Sediment Records. Quaternary Research, 54, 238-245.

Mann, M.E., Woodruff, J.D., Donnelly, J.P., and Zhang, Z. (2009). Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years. Nature, 460, 880-883.
Note: this article was also referenced by NPR:
Hamilton, J. (2009). Recent Hurricanes Not Matched Since Middle Ages. National Public Radio, 12 August 2009.

Mock, C.J. (in press). "Tropical Cyclone Variations in Louisiana, U.S.A. since the Late Eighteenth Century." G-Cubed.

Nyberg, J., B.A. Malmgren, A. Winter, M.R. Jury, K.H. Kilbourne, and T.M. Quinn (2007). "Low Atlantic hurricane activity in the 1970s and 1980s compared to the past 270 years." Nature, 447, 698-701.

Saunders, M.A. and A.S. Lea (2008). "Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity." Nature, 451, 557-560.

Swanson, K. L. (2008), Nonlocality of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 9, Q04V01, doi:10.1029/2007GC001844.

Trenberth, K. (2005). Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming. Science, 308(5729), 1753 - 1754.

Vecchi, G. A., and T. R. Knutson, 2008: On estimates of historical North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Journal of Climate, 21(14), 3580-3600.

Vecci, G.A. and B.J. Soden (2007). "Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity." Nature, 450, 1066-1070.

Vecchi, G.A., Swanson, K.L. and Soden, B.J. (2008). Whither Hurricane Activity? Science 332, n. 5902, p. 687-689

Webster, P.J., G.J. Holland, J.A. Curry, H.R. Chang (2005). Science, 309(5742), 1844 - 1846.