InTeGrate Modules and Courses >Water Science and Society > Student Materials > Climate Change > What are the implications of global warming for precipitation and water availability? > Projected Changes
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These materials are part of a collection of classroom-tested modules and courses developed by InTeGrate. The materials engage students in understanding the earth system as it intertwines with key societal issues. The collection is freely available and ready to be adapted by undergraduate educators across a range of courses including: general education or majors courses in Earth-focused disciplines such as geoscience or environmental science, social science, engineering, and other sciences, as well as courses for interdisciplinary programs.
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These student materials complement the Water Science and Society Instructor Materials. If you would like your students to have access to the student materials, we suggest you either point them at the Student Version which omits the framing pages with information designed for faculty (and this box). Or you can download these pages in several formats that you can include in your course website or local Learning Managment System. Learn more about using, modifying, and sharing InTeGrate teaching materials.
Initial Publication Date: March 31, 2017

Projected Changes

Figure 4 illustrates projected changes in other parts of the hydrological cycle during the time period 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 according to the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Note that the number of competing climate models represented for each panel of the figure is indicated by a number in the top right (range: 32-39 different models are averaged for each prediction). Future projections of water runoff or soil moisture are dependent on precipitation, which, as discussed earlier, is itself subject to substantial uncertainties. Nevertheless, it is worth considering what the variety of competing climate models have to say. For example, note the general (if slight) decrease in relative humidity over most land masses and slight increase in relative humidity over the oceans (middle panel, left column). The middle panel in the right column shows changes in the difference between evaporation and precipitation with blue colors indicating a relatively wetter future (more precipitation relative to evaporation) and red colors indicating a relatively drier future (more evaporation than precipitation). The bottom panel in the left column predicts changes in surface water runoff. Note the significant declines in runoff throughout the southwestern US and southern Europe/northern Africa and parts of South America. This same trend is amplified in predictions of soil moisture, which is a primary control on plant growth (bottom panel, right column).


These materials are part of a collection of classroom-tested modules and courses developed by InTeGrate. The materials engage students in understanding the earth system as it intertwines with key societal issues. The collection is freely available and ready to be adapted by undergraduate educators across a range of courses including: general education or majors courses in Earth-focused disciplines such as geoscience or environmental science, social science, engineering, and other sciences, as well as courses for interdisciplinary programs.
Explore the Collection »