Initial Publication Date: October 9, 2017

Teaching about Earthquake Risk: Southern California and the ShakeOut Scenario as an example

This case was prepared by by John Taber, IRIS, for the 2014 Teaching about Risk and Resilience workshop and draws from materials by Jones, L.M., R. Bernknopf, D. Cox, J. Goltz, K. Hudnut, D. Mileti, S. Perry, D. Ponti, K. Porter, M. Reichle, H. Seligson, K. Shoaf, J. Treiman, and A. Wein, (2008)

Earthquakes are prevalent in southern California, among other areas, making learning about them important to understanding risk and being resilient. Participants at the 2014 Teaching about Risk and Resilience workshop discussed ways to teach about earthquake risk to undergraduate students in a variety of disciplinary focuses using the case outlined below.

Show participants' ideas for incorporating this and similar examples into the classroom

Teach students data literacy and how to find information that they can assess themselves using the USGS Earthquake website and preparedness information from cities and counties.
Have students do a rapid visual screening: Seismic building evaluation, students find out what zone they are in based on FEMA maps, and practice evaluating buildings for seismic preparedness.
Research effects of earthquakes on societies and compare different socioeconomic groups and histories.
Assign students a country (or city) and assess that country's (or city's) preparedness for earthquake events.
Have students choose a city where they would want to move and assess the risk.
In a hazards class in the Pacific Northwest, have students assess the risk at their home in different potential scenarios for Seattle fault, Cascadia subduction zone, Tacoma fault, etc. Do they: have an earthquake kit, water heater strapped to wall, natural gas, soils prone to liquefaction, lahar deposits from Mt. Rainier, landslides.
Explore visualizations such as: Northridge Near You, or Shake table videos of two-story house.

Existing software resources that are available as supporting material for incorporating this example into the classroom:

FEMA154 - Rapid Visual Screening of buildings for seismic safety
Global earthquake model
Open Seismic Hazard Assessment- lots of programs for various aspects of seismic hazard analysis
ROVER Ready - pre- and post-earthquake building safety screening
Shake table videos of two-story house

Related participant-contributed materials from the workshop:

Activities

Seismicity and Relative Risk - Anne Egger
Evaluating natural hazards data to assess the risk to your California home - Corrie Neighbors, based on an activity by David Oglesby
Locating the Epicenter of the 1994 Northridge Earthquake & Planning Ahead - Ana Garcia-Garcia
The 2014 La Habra earthquake: Teaching Risk and Resilience in Southern California with Citizen Science - Damielle Sumy and Robert De Groot
Seismic Evaluation of Buildings - Dr. G.P. Ganapathy
Risk Assessment and Regulation in Christchurch, New Zealand - Patricia Stapleton
Ground Shaking and Damage at Your House - Carla Whittington and Eric Baer

Courses

Natural Hazards and Disasters - Corrie Neighbors and David Oglesby
Geologic Catastrophes - Carla Whittington

Real-world examples

Tsunami scenario affecting California coastal communities (USGS SAFRR project) - Corrie Neighbors
Induced Seismicity in the United States - Danielle Sumy
Earthquake Scenarios: Evaluating Potential Ground Shaking and Damage - Carla Whittington
Earthquake Preparedness in Christchurch, New Zealand - Patricia Stapleton

Summary

The Los Angeles region is well known for being at risk for earthquakes, with damaging earthquakes in recent memory such as the Northridge earthquake in 1994, that caused 57 deaths and over $20 billion in damage. There is also a general public knowledge that the San Andreas Fault is not far away, and is capable of causing much greater damage. However awareness that a risk exists does not necessarily lead to preparedness.

As part of the ongoing effort to reduce the earthquake risk in southern California, a detailed scenario was developed in 2008 by the USGS and the Southern California Earthquake Center and a team of over 300 scientists, engineers and others (http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1324/) . The scenario, which will form the basis of this case study, estimates that a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault will cause over 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, $200 billion in damage and other losses, and severe, long-lasting disruption. The scenario has helped focus the effort to prepare buildings, infrastructure and inhabitants in the region for the next "big one".

The case study considers how this scenario has impacted the economic, political, and social aspects of mitigation, response and recovery planning throughout the region, and addresses what future steps are needed to improve southern California's resilience. The case study also addresses the continuing effort to improve the science behind the hazard and risk estimates, and looks at the process needed to put those estimates into a form that can be used to implement engineering solutions and social changes.

Individuals with expertise/responsibilities in the following areas have helped create the case study:

Engineering
Seismology
Emergency response
Public preparedness/Great ShakeOut
Regional and state planning

Key teaching points:

Understanding the basis for, and the limits and uncertainties of the scientific and engineering modelling for the scenario.
Determining the implications for preparedness where the long term hazard and risk models are well estimated, but the short-term timing is completely unpredictable.
Determining the best approaches to convince building owners and government planners that short-term expenditures (e.g. retrofitting, building new structures to a higher standard) will create longer-term benefits to society.
Analyzing the impact the Great ShakeOut earthquake drills (http://www.shakeout.org/) have had on earthquake risk mitigation in the public, private, and government sectors.

Teaching about Earthquake Risk: Southern California and the ShakeOut Scenario as an example

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