• Identify and describe the types of data useful to investigate tectonic deformation and seismic hazard potential.
• Identify and describe the characteristics of tectonic deformation and seismic hazard potential for the student's chosen region.
• Use data collected from online data sources (including GPS data products from PBO) and elsewhere to quantify plate motion and deformation.
• Demonstrate her/his understanding of tectonic deformation and seismic potential by creating maps with relevant data and by developing oral/written report with results and discussion of findings.

• Formulating research question (hypothesis)
• Finding and analyzing data
• Interpreting maps, tables, and graphs
• Synthesizing ideas

• Pattern and trends recognition
• Graphing and interpreting data
• Online mapping tools - ability to download data, interpret symbols on maps, create simple maps using Google Earth or hand-drawn maps
• Unit conversion
• Cause and effect: plate motion, deformation, earthquakes, faulting, etc impact the landscape and create distinct landforms
• Stability and change: sudden vs gradual change (plate motion vs fault movement from earthquakes)
• Construct and interpret scatter plots for bivariate measurement data to investigate patterns of association between two quantities
• Communication skills in writing and oral presentation

• Current tectonic movement and deformation using GPS data
• Earthquake history (size, location, depth),
• Location and orientation of faults
• Land use and population density
• USGS shake potential maps
• (optional) Landforms (valleys, mountains, volcanoes, scarps, etc.)
• (optional) soil and sediment characteristics of the subsurface - basins vs bedrock

• One of the many faults adjacent to the San Andreas fault - San Simeon fault, Ortigalita, Calaveras, Hayward, Greenville, Santa Ynez, Sierra Madre, Garlock, San Jacinto etc.
• The Wasatch Front, UT - most slip occurs on the Wasatch fault, but the area is more complex than it appears at first glance, with relative rotation playing a significant role in observed GPS velocities.
• Central Nevada Seismic Belt - actually contains multiple faults, and slip on individual faults is not well known. A more holistic view could be explored.
• Owens Valley fault zone, eastern CA
• Cascadia or Aleutian subduction zone - because these subduction zones are offshore, there are no GPS instruments near the actual fault, so relative plate motion should be used to estimate convergence rates. Because they are such large-scale structures, spherical geometry becomes important and convergence rates are not constant along subduction zones. Also note that slab geometry, age, and topography all affect fault interactions in subduction zones.
• Seattle fault zone or Southern Whidbey Island fault zone - two smaller fault zones around Seattle

• UNAVCO GPS Velocities Maps (more info)
• IRIS Earthquake Browser
• The Global Strain Rate Map a quick way to see if the area is tectonically active - students would choose an areas where there is color on this map: (from http://gsrm.unavco.org/model/)

• GPS velocities - Multiple map viewing tools show the velocity vectors at GPS stations. Stick with one GPS data source (either PBO or UNR).
• GPS time series csv files for stations within ~100 km of study area - these are useful to look at for earthquakes or anomalies in the data.
• Calculations and plots can be done in Excel
• Table/maps of historic earthquakes
• Table/map of prehistoric, large earthquakes (plotting magnitude vs. interval will not be linear as the student might expect)
• Fault database for fault characteristics, etc.
• Fault slip rates
• Shakemaps for given magnitudes
• (optional) DEM kmz images of scarps if available
• Maps to identify nearby towns, local geography

• UNAVCO GPS Velocities Maps (more info) : combined with UNAVCO PBO network maps (click on a circle then the link for more information about a GPS station)
• University of Nevada- Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (this site uses a different reference frame)
• Data Archive Interface - Look at PBO network, view time series plots, and download data as .csv:
• The Global Strain Rate Map from http://gsrm.unavco.org/model/)

Earthquake history (size, location, depth):

• IRIS Earthquake browser
• USGS - there are Google Earth files (kmz and Kmls) available from USGS
• (advanced) ANSS catalog

• USGS fault and fold database and fault slip rates
• USGS interactive fault map (more info)
• USGS shakeMaps

• Google Maps
• National Map Viewer - a great source of topographic and land-use data as well as air photos and satellite data.

• http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/ 'Volcanoes'
• Soil and sediment characteristics of the subsurface: Map Database for Surficial Materials
• Land use and population density
• Landforms (valleys, mountains, volcanoes, scarps, etc.)
• Seismic hazard maps
• Tsunami inundation maps:
• Oregon
• Washington [pdf]

• Describe the geologic setting of your study area:
• What kind of fault(s) are there?
• Describe the kind of data sources available. (Some faults are better instrumented than others.)
• Geodetic measurements of slip:
• Describe how fast are GPS stations moving on either side of the fault or fault zone.
• Describe the transitions in velocities across the fault: gradual, abrupt, etc.
• Identify GPS stations from a map view then create an x-y plot of velocity vs. cross-fault distance (distance from the fault; using the fault's location as zero). In some places like the Aleutians, students would have to look at relative plate velocities. (If a large region is used, spherical plate geometry becomes more important.)
• Or open the PBO GPS velocity file in a spreadsheet program; for for each GPS station, use the columns with dN/dt and dE/dt to calculate horizontal velocity (use either a graphical method or pythagorean equation to calculate the vector math), then create the x-y plot as described above.
• Historical earthquake magnitudes:
• By looking at paleoseismic history and historic earthquakes, estimate a range of earthquake magnitudes that could occur on the segment of the fault in your region. (Create a table with date, location, and magnitude)
• Slip rate:
• Describe the slip rate for the segment of the fault(s) within your region (mm/year). (from the USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold database - usually given as a range; values are generally less than GPS rates.)
• How does this slip rate compare to the GPS velocity differences across the fault?
• Definition of slip rate from USGS Earthquake glossary: The slip rate is how fast the two sides of a fault are slipping relative to one another, as determined from geodetic measurements, from offset man-made structures, or from offset geologic features whose age can be estimated. - however the reality is that the numbers for paleoseismic measurements don't quite equal geodetic. Propose some reasons why these might be different, remembering that an earthquake is a rupture area including the surface rupture length and depth.
• Maximum slip displacement (expected offset):
• Calculate the maximum displacement (MD) (slip that occurs during earthquakes, also called offset) for different Magnitudes that could be expected for the fault(s) in your region using the magnitude-rupture displacement scaling relations equation.
• Use this magnitude-rupture displacement scaling relations equation:

M = a + b*log10(MD)

M=moment magnitude

a=6.69±.04

b=0.74±.07

MD=maximum displacement

antilog[(M-a)/b] = MD

• And, if possible, find the offset directly from the fault database or other references.
• How does the USGS fault database for your fault segment compare to your calculation?
• Now that you know the expected offsets from an earthquake for different magnitudes, use the slip rate to calculate the time needed to load to that offset.
• What would the time be given an alternate slip rate?
• How often would an earthquake of a given magnitude occur given the slip rate you found for the fault? This can also be thought of as the Time needed to reload the fault (until another earthquake occurs), or the Earthquake frequency (recurrence rate)
• Reload time (years) = Maximum slip displacement / slip rate
• Using paleohistory and measured history of earthquakes : Describe the frequency rate of earthquakes at different magnitudes (1 earthquake per x years) (this might be shown as a table) for your region. How does the literature compare to your calculation?
• Describe what else would you need to to know to get a better estimate of earthquake return (recurrence) time/ seismic hazard/ risk:
• By identifying information you don't have helps determine the uncertainties involved.
• What other factors might affect the earthquake return time? (Possible discussion of fault interactions, pore fluid changes, and more exotic processes like glaciation, dynamic triggering, etc.)
• Another scaling relation is the Magnitude-Surface Rupture Length (since magnitude or offset aren't less often available than segment length).
• Calculate the Surface Rupture Length using the equation below.
• Using this surface rupture length, what would be the maximum depth possible of the fault? How does this compare to the fault database?

M = a + b*log10(SRL)

a=5.08±.1

b=1.16±.07

SRL=surface rupture length (km)

M=moment magnitude

• Based on earthquake frequency and magnitudes in your study area (scales of 10,000s, 1000s, or hundreds of years), describe the seismic hazard (low, medium, or high)?
• Provide a justification for your choice.
• What would be the societal effects of earthquakes in your study area; what kind of damage could be expected?
• Look at Shakemaps for your area and examples of similarly sized earthquakes in the news, fault location, geology (hard rock vs sediment), population, etc.
• Comment on the amount of potential damage and area affected to address the potential impact in the earthquake. Risk can vary greatly based on population density, building codes, and local geology, so any discussion will be open-ended.
• What's this all mean?

Locations for projects

• While place-based choices would be ideal to provide student connection to the investigation, some areas of the country are more seismically active than others.
• United States: Good data are available for the western United States, Alaska, and the basin and range region of Nevada into Utah.
• International locations are possible, but publicly available, open-source data sets like PBO GPS data or USGS fault data are not generally available. other GPS datasets are available. Try the University of Nevada- Nevada Geodetic Laboratory ). The student may find slip rate and paleoseismic history in published papers, but pulling together the required data requires some time and luck.

• Plate motion is close to 'zero', such as mid-continental United States:
• The PBO GPS dataset in NAM-08 (North American Reference frame) sets the motion of the mid-continent to close to zero so that the movement along the edges of the plate are more obvious. Swithcing to another reference frame won't necessarily help as the velocity differences between GPS stations most of the mid-continent are also close to zero.

• Have students choose a different location- Check the global strain rate map, GPS velocity maps, and earthquake browser to pick another area.
• International locations, they might be frustrated with
• No GPS data available within their study area: Try the University of Nevada- Nevada Geodetic Laboratory ; if there still isn't GPS data, then unfortunately they would need to either choose a different area with GPS data or not use GPS data at all.

Working in Teams

• In introductory undergraduate classes, students work in teams to work on this project. Team members help and collaborate with each other to map the data, analyze the patterns and visual distributions on the maps that they observe, and developing their conclusions about seismic potential.
• Depending on the class make up, assigning teams might be more success to that students with different strengths and challenges are paired together. Different group roles that the students assign to facilitate active participation and to draw on their strengths, may include: Scribe, Group Leader, Artist - Mapper, Data plotter, Discussion director, etc. Each student though should be part of the data analysis, interpretation, and results discussions.
• Students in more advanced (majors level) courses could work more independently, perhaps choosing regions with fault segments adjacent to each other, using group time to brainstorm, compare approaches, analyzes, and conclusions before submitting the project for grading (whether peer or instructor graded).

Common difficulties (with potential solutions) encountered by students during similar projects (From Linda Reinen's Watershed Analysis