Unit 5: How do earthquakes affect society?
These materials have been reviewed for their alignment with the Next Generation Science Standards as detailed below. Visit InTeGrate and the NGSS to learn more.
OverviewStudents predict and evaluate societal impacts of fault motion based on their recognizing and categorizing active faults using LiDAR, InSAR, Google Earth, and geodetic data sets. Students calculate recurrence intervals, predict future magnitudes, and estimate seismic hazards and write a report discussing societal impacts.
Science and Engineering Practices
Planning and Carrying Out Investigations: Select appropriate tools to collect, record, analyze, and evaluate data. HS-P3.4:
Planning and Carrying Out Investigations: Plan and conduct an investigation or test a design solution in a safe and ethical manner including considerations of environmental, social, and personal impacts. HS-P3.3:
Planning and Carrying Out Investigations: Plan an investigation or test a design individually and collaboratively to produce data to serve as the basis for evidence as part of building and revising models, supporting explanations for phenomena, or testing solutions to problems. Consider possible confounding variables or effects and evaluate the investigation’s design to ensure variables are controlled. HS-P3.1:
Obtaining, Evaluating, and Communicating Information: Gather, read, and evaluate scientific and/or technical information from multiple authoritative sources, assessing the evidence and usefulness of each source. HS-P8.3:
Obtaining, Evaluating, and Communicating Information: Compare, integrate and evaluate sources of information presented in different media or formats (e.g., visually, quantitatively) as well as in words in order to address a scientific question or solve a problem. HS-P8.2:
Obtaining, Evaluating, and Communicating Information: Communicate scientific and/or technical information or ideas (e.g. about phenomena and/or the process of development and the design and performance of a proposed process or system) in multiple formats (i.e., orally, graphically, textually, mathematically). HS-P8.5:
Engaging in Argument from Evidence: Make and defend a claim based on evidence about the natural world or the effectiveness of a design solution that reflects scientific knowledge and student-generated evidence. HS-P7.5:
Developing and Using Models: Develop, revise, and/or use a model based on evidence to illustrate and/or predict the relationships between systems or between components of a system HS-P2.3:
Developing and Using Models: Develop and/or use a model (including mathematical and computational) to generate data to support explanations, predict phenomena, analyze systems, and/or solve problems. HS-P2.6:
Constructing Explanations and Designing Solutions: Make a quantitative and/or qualitative claim regarding the relationship between dependent and independent variables. HS-P6.1:
Constructing Explanations and Designing Solutions: Construct and revise an explanation based on valid and reliable evidence obtained from a variety of sources (including students’ own investigations, models, theories, simulations, peer review) and the assumption that theories and laws that describe the natural world operate today as they did in the past and will continue to do so in the future. HS-P6.2:
Constructing Explanations and Designing Solutions: Apply scientific reasoning, theory, and/or models to link evidence to the claims to assess the extent to which the reasoning and data support the explanation or conclusion. HS-P6.4:
Constructing Explanations and Designing Solutions: Apply scientific ideas, principles, and/or evidence to provide an explanation of phenomena and solve design problems, taking into account possible unanticipated effects. HS-P6.3:
Asking Questions and Defining Problems: ask questions to clarify and refine a model, an explanation, or an engineering problem HS-P1.4:
Asking Questions and Defining Problems: ask questions that arise from examining models or a theory, to clarify and/or seek additional information and relationships. HS-P1.2:
Asking Questions and Defining Problems: Define a design problem that involves the development of a process or system with interacting components and criteria and constraints that may include social, technical, and/or environmental considerations. ￼ HS-P1.8:
Asking Questions and Defining Problems: Ask questions that can be investigated within the scope of the school laboratory, research facilities, or field (e.g., outdoor environment) with available resources and, when appropriate, frame a hypothesis based on a model or theory. HS-P1.6:
Asking Questions and Defining Problems: Ask questions that arise from careful observation of phenomena, or unexpected results, to clarify and/or seek additional information. HS-P1.1:
Asking Questions and Defining Problems: Ask and/or evaluate questions that challenge the premise(s) of an argument, the interpretation of a data set, or the suitability of a design. HS-P1.7:
Analyzing and Interpreting Data: Compare and contrast various types of data sets (e.g., self-generated, archival) to examine consistency of measurements and observations. HS-P4.4:
Analyzing and Interpreting Data: Analyze data using tools, technologies, and/or models (e.g., computational, mathematical) in order to make valid and reliable scientific claims or determine an optimal design solution. HS-P4.1:
Cross Cutting Concepts
Systems and System Models: Models can be used to predict the behavior of a system, but these predictions have limited precision and reliability due to the assumptions and approximations inherent in models. HS-C4.4:
Systems and System Models: Models (e.g., physical, mathematical, computer models) can be used to simulate systems and interactions—including energy, matter, and information flows—within and between systems at different scales. HS-C4.3:
Structure and Function: The functions and properties of natural and designed objects and systems can be inferred from their overall structure, the way their components are shaped and used, and the molecular substructures of its various materials. HS-C6.2:
Stability and Change: Change and rates of change can be quantified and modeled over very short or very long periods of time. Some system changes are irreversible. HS-C7.2:
Patterns: Mathematical representations are needed to identify some patterns HS-C1.4:
Patterns: Empirical evidence is needed to identify patterns. HS-C1.5:
Patterns: Different patterns may be observed at each of the scales at which a system is studied and can provide evidence for causality in explanations of phenomena HS-C1.1:
Disciplinary Core Ideas
Natural Hazards: Natural hazards and other geologic events have shaped the course of human history; [they] have significantly altered the sizes of human populations and have driven human migrations. HS-ESS3.B1:
Information Technologies and Instrumentation: Multiple technologies based on the understanding of waves and their interactions with matter are part of everyday experiences in the modern world (e.g., medical imaging, communications, scanners) and in scientific research. They are essential tools for producing, transmitting, and capturing signals and for storing and interpreting the information contained in them HS-PS4.C1:
Waves and their Applications in Technologies for Information Transfer: Communicate technical information about how some technological devices use the principles of wave behavior and wave interactions with matter to transmit and capture information and energy HS-PS4-5:
Engineering Design: Use a computer simulation to model the impact of proposed solutions to a complex real-world problem with numerous criteria and constraints on interactions within and between systems relevant to the problem. HS-ETS1-4:
Engineering Design: Evaluate a solution to a complex real-world problem based on prioritized criteria and trade-offs that account for a range of constraints, including cost, safety, reliability, and aesthetics as well as possible social, cultural, and environmental impacts. HS-ETS1-3:
Earth and Human Activity: Construct an explanation based on evidence for how the availability of natural resources, occurrence of natural hazards, and changes in climate have influenced human activity. HS-ESS3-1:
This material was developed and reviewed through the GETSI curricular materials development process. This rigorous, structured process includes:
- team-based development to ensure materials are appropriate across multiple educational settings.
- multiple iterative reviews and feedback cycles through the course of material development with input to the authoring team from both project editors and an external assessment team.
- real in-class or field camp/course testing of materials in multiple courses with external review of student assessment data.
- multiple reviews to ensure the materials meet the GETSI materials rubric which codifies best practices in curricular development, student assessment and pedagogic techniques.
- created or reviewed by content experts for accuracy of the science content.
This activity was selected for the On the Cutting Edge Reviewed Teaching Collection
This activity has received positive reviews in a peer review process involving five review categories. The five categories included in the process are
- Scientific Accuracy
- Alignment of Learning Goals, Activities, and Assessments
- Pedagogic Effectiveness
- Robustness (usability and dependability of all components)
- Completeness of the ActivitySheet web page
For more information about the peer review process itself, please see https://serc.carleton.edu/teachearth/activity_review.html.
This page first made public: Dec 14, 2015
Unit 5 Learning Outcomes
This unit is intended to provide the summative assessment for the entire module. Students should demonstrate a mastery of the learning goals for the entire module. These include the following:
- Students will be able to predict and evaluate the societal impacts (risk) of fault motion (e.g. damage to buildings and infrastructure) based on an understanding of the fault type and specific characteristics of a fault (orientation, area of potential slip, fault displacement vector).
- Students will be able to recognize and categorize active faults using LiDAR, InSAR, or other imagery and recommend geodetic data set(s) for a given scenario considering the strengths/weaknesses/capabilities to find characteristic features for different fault types.
- Students will be able to synthesize the longer-term behavior of faults (i.e. from the landscape) and the short-term behavior of individual earthquakes to determine recurrence intervals, potential magnitudes of future earthquakes, and hence forecast seismic hazards.
Unit 5 Teaching Objectives
Unit 5 is intended to be a synthesis of the different techniques and concepts covered in the module, as applied to a real-world scenario, emphasizing potential societal impacts. Support students as they progress through the Unit 5 workflow and, where necessary, help them in recalling and applying previously learned material. Novel angles for the exercise could involve the audience for the report: you work for an insurance company, you are trying to build a oil or gas pipeline, you are drawing up legislation defining national standards for critical fault-crossing infrastructure such as water pipes/aqueducts.
Context for Use
Description and Teaching Materials
This activity is motivated by the imminent risk of many population centers to earthquake-related disasters primarily stemming from the impact of an earthquake on critical infrastructure components necessary to support such a concentration of people—such as water, electrical, and gas lines; roads, bridges, and buildings; and food and medical supplies. There is a long-standing tradition in the sciences to produce a final report that documents all the critical steps of a particular scientific inquiry that includes the identification of a problem, the selection of the most appropriate resources from which to collect relevant data, the analysis of the data, and the drawing of conclusions and implications from the data. The final step is to make suggestions as to how this information can be used to mitigate the societal impact of an earthquake. Data are provided for two potential case study sites for the final report -- El Major Cucapah Earthquake (Mexico 2010) and South Napa Earthquake (California 2014). The data file below has LiDAR data for both sites and InSAR data is on Visible Earthquakes. Alternatively, the instructor or students can choose another site/s to analyze instead of the two provided.
Students will prepare a report with citation to previous exercises (comparing and contrasting to reflect on learning); standard scientific citations of published scientific articles and appropriate websites (e.g. US Geological Survey) also will be part of the assessment. Students will integrate a number of different aspects from subdisciplines within the geosciences such as geomorphology, surficial processes, seismology (including the earthquake cycle and the mechanics of energy propagation in the form of various seismic waves), and quantitative analysis and error analysis, along with various remote sensing technology, geodetic data sets, and spatial and temporal context. A rubric for scoring the various sections of the report is given below.
This problem is inherently interdisciplinary, as it requires consideration of both geoscience data and societal needs. Students must use systems thinking to investigate interactions between the geosphere and the anthroposphere, in particular the positive feedback between the earthquake cycle, faulting and the associated energy release, and the risk to infrastructure critical for societal well-being.
This activity is designed to start during a class or laboratory period. Students will be introduced to the assignment, receive an overall explanation of how to work through the assignment using the flow path outlined above, and be provided with guidelines for writing their report. Students will then begin to work during the remainder of the laboratory period and continue to work on the project as an out-of-class assignment. It is expected that students will need 1–2 weeks outside of class to complete this assignment; the final due date should be determined by the instructor based on the instructional setting.
Unit 5 Data Files (Zip Archive 81.6MB Dec5 15)
Teaching Notes and Tips
This final exercise is intended to take longer than the previous units, which could be finished within a normal laboratory period and homework/write-up time (consistent with the course being one for advanced majors). Unit 5 will require the students to work longer outside of laboratory meeting time and could be scheduled such that a second laboratory session could be used as a time when the faculty member would be available for consultation and guidance to catch misconceptions and also minimize time spent pursuing dead ends. This exercise will serve as a useful reinforcement of the technical skills already acquired in working on Units 1–4 and may add some additional technical skills.
Students will be able to use the experience as a means of preparing for a final exam question on a related topic.
Specific comments about the unit and its materials are:
- Students should be steered towards areas that have the same data available to them as in Units 1–4. Potential study sites, for which the data is provided here, are El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake and South Napa; these are located in regions with populations and infrastructure at risk.
- Students will need to make decisions as to the most appropriate data to collect from the various resources available and to also determine whether additional information is necessary such as maps that show infrastructure or, lacking such specific information, suggest what infrastructure would be expected to exist.
- Students will use what they have learned about the longer-term behavior of faults (i.e. from the landscape) and the short-term behavior of individual earthquakes to determine recurrence intervals, potential magnitudes of future earthquakes, and hence forecast seismic hazards.
- Students will need to create data tables, summary charts, appropriate graph, and simple diagrams and also show examples of their calculations.
- Students will present their findings in a summative report and in their response to an open-ended essay question on the final exam.
Example Unit 5 Assessment Rubric (Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 119kB Dec1 15)
References and Resources
- El Mayor Cucapah, Mexico 2010
- Earthquake Engineering Research Institute El Mayor -Cucapah Earthquake Report
- Oskin, M.E., Arrowsmith, J.R., Corona, A.H., Elliott, A.J., Fletcher, J.M., Fielding, E.J., Gold, P.O., Garcia, J.J.G., Hudnet, K.W., Liu-Zeng, J., and Teran, O.J., 2012, Near-Field Deformation from the El Mayor–Cucapah Earthquake Revealed by Differential LIDAR. Science, 335, 6069, 702-705.
- Wei, S., Fielding, E., Leprince, S., Sladen, A., Avouac, J.P., Helmberger, D., Hauksson, E., Chu, R., Simons, M., Hudnut, K., Herring, T., and Briggs, R., Superficial simplicity of the 2010 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake of Baja California in Mexico. Nature Geoscience, 4, 9, 615-619.
- South Napa, CA 2014
- South Napa, USA Earthquake Clearinghouse
- F. Guangcaia, L. Zhiweia, S. Xinjianb, X, Binga, and D. Yanan, 2015, Source parameters of the 2014 Mw 6.1 South Napa earthquake estimated from the Sentinel 1A, COSMO-SkyMed and GPS data. Tectonophysics, 655, 139–146.
- DS Dreger, MH Huang, A Rodgers, T Taira, and K Wooddell, 2015, Kinematic Finite‐Source Model for the 24 August 2014 South Napa, California, Earthquake from Joint Inversion of Seismic, GPS, and InSAR Data. Seismological research Letters, 86, 2A, 327-334.