Unit 2: Temperature--A Global Trendsetter

Leigh Stearns (University of Kansas)
Becca Walker (Mt. San Antonio College)

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Initial Publication Date: December 14, 2015 | Community Contribution: August 26, 2024 (see revision history: 4 events)

Summary

How have average global air temperature and sea level changed in the last three decades? Have the changes been consistent? Can future changes in air temperature and sea level be predicted? In this unit, students will become familiar with the concept of a time series by calculating recent air temperature and sea level trends and projecting these measurements for 2100. They will also begin to consider environmental factors in addition to temperature that could influence sea level and the potential implications of sea level changes during the next century.

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Impacts of climate change, Recent climate data, Geodesy, Sea Level ...(more) | College Introductory

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Topics

Impacts of climate change, Recent climate data, Geodesy, Sea Level Change, Climate Change

Grade Level

College Introductory

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These materials have been reviewed for their alignment with the Next Generation Science Standards as detailed below.

Overview

Students calculate sea levels during various time periods, identify factors that influence sea level changes, rank factors they identified, and then compare their rankings with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change measurements. Students make predictions for 2100 sea levels.

Science and Engineering Practices

Using Mathematics and Computational Thinking: Apply ratios, rates, percentages, and unit conversions in the context of complicated measurement problems involving quantities with derived or compound units (such as mg/mL, kg/m3, acre-feet, etc.). HS-P5.5:

Obtaining, Evaluating, and Communicating Information: Critically read scientific literature adapted for classroom use to determine the central ideas or conclusions and/or to obtain scientific and/or technical information to summarize complex evidence, concepts, processes, or information presented in a text by paraphrasing them in simpler but still accurate terms. HS-P8.1:

Constructing Explanations and Designing Solutions: Make a quantitative and/or qualitative claim regarding the relationship between dependent and independent variables. HS-P6.1:

Analyzing and Interpreting Data: Analyze data using tools, technologies, and/or models (e.g., computational, mathematical) in order to make valid and reliable scientific claims or determine an optimal design solution. HS-P4.1:

Cross Cutting Concepts

Stability and Change: Change and rates of change can be quantified and modeled over very short or very long periods of time. Some system changes are irreversible. HS-C7.2:

Scale, Proportion and Quantity: The significance of a phenomenon is dependent on the scale, proportion, and quantity at which it occurs. HS-C3.1:

Patterns: Empirical evidence is needed to identify patterns. HS-C1.5:

Cause and effect: Changes in systems may have various causes that may not have equal effects. HS-C2.4:

Disciplinary Core Ideas

Weather and Climate: Current models predict that, although future regional climate changes will be complex and varied, average global temperatures will continue to rise. The outcomes predicted by global climate models strongly depend on the amounts of human-generated greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere each year and by the ways in which these gases are absorbed by the ocean and biosphere. HS-ESS2.D4:

Performance Expectations

Earth's Systems: Analyze geoscience data to make the claim that one change to Earth's surface can create feedbacks that cause changes to other Earth systems. HS-ESS2-2:

Earth and Human Activity: Use a computational representation to illustrate the relationships among Earth systems and how those relationships are being modified due to human activity. HS-ESS3-6:

Earth and Human Activity: Analyze geoscience data and the results from global climate models to make an evidence-based forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts to Earth systems. HS-ESS3-5:

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Learning Goals

Unit 2 Learning Outcomes

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Global sea level change since 1992 by the University of Colorado Sea Level Research Group. Data from TOPEX and Jason satellite radar altimeters are verified against tidal gauge data and adjusted for seasonal variations. (http://sealevel.colorado.edu/)
Provenance: http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
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Students will calculate the global sea level trend over various time scales including projections for global sea level by 2100.
Students will identify at least three factors that influence sea level changes, rank each factor's respective contribution to sea level change, and compare their rankings with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) measurements.

Show more info on how learning outcomes connect to science literacy principles and module goals

Supports Module Goal 2; Earth Science Big Ideas ESBI-1: Earth scientists use repeatable observations and testable ideas to understand and explain our planet, ESBI-3: Earth is a complex system of interacting rock, water, air, and life, ESBI-4: Earth is continuously changing, ESBI-9: Humans significantly alter the Earth; and Climate Literacy Principles CLP-2: Climate is regulated by complex interactions among components of the Earth system, CLP-4: Climate varies over space and time through both natural and man-made processes, CLP-5: Our understanding of the climate system is improved through observations, theoretical studies, and modeling, CLP-6: Human activities are impacting the climate system. (links open in new windows)

Unit 2 Teaching Objectives

Cognitive: Facilitate consideration of the air temperature's influence on the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere, and the consequences of atmospheric warming on sea level.
Behavioral: Provide an opportunity for skills development in calculating rates of change and predicting changes in a natural system.
Affective: Encourage reflection about the role of uncertainty in scientists' understanding of a complex system.

Context for Use

The content in Unit 2 is appropriate for introductory geology, oceanography, meteorology, and other geoscience courses; sophomore-level courses in which geodesy and/or climate studies are being introduced; or non-geoscience courses where climate studies and/or the nature and methods of science are being investigated. Unit 2 activities can easily be adapted to serve small- or large-enrollment classes and can be executed in lecture and lab settings as an interactive lecture activity, an in-class activity in which students work in small groups, a short lab exercise, or as part of a ~two-week investigation of the use of geodesy to understand cryosphere and sea level changes using the entire Ice Mass and Sea Level Change module. This is the first unit in the Ice Mass and Sea Level Change module that deals heavily with data and precedes Unit 3: Warm with a chance of melting on spatial and temporal changes in Greenland ice mass using snowmelt, ice velocity, ice elevation, and temperature data from four study sites on the Greenland Ice Sheet. If the entire two-week module will not be utilized, we recommend pairing Unit 2 with Unit 3: Warm with a chance of melting to expose students to a variety of spatial data and to give students an opportunity to make qualitative predictions about changes in ice mass in addition to the quantitative predictions they made in Unit 2. Alternatively, Unit 2 could be paired with Unit 5: Regional sea level changes—a tale of two cities to consider potential societal impacts of the sea level changes that they projected for 2100 in Unit 2.

Description and Teaching Materials

Part 1:

Click to view

Sea Level Rise slides - Unit 2 Part 1 (PowerPoint 2.2MB Nov12 15)
In small groups (could be done as a think-pair-share) or as a whole group, students will generate a list of as many environmental factors as possible in addition to atmospheric warming (these factors could be a consequence of atmospheric warming, however) that could result in sea level changes. Students will not be instructed to think specifically about local vs. global sea level changes, so we anticipate that some responses will be specific to local sea level changes and others will be global. In small groups or as a whole-group discussion, students will rank each environmental factor according to its relative influence on sea level. This presentation can be used to guide the discussion.

Part 2:

$Helpful Math slides - Unit 2 Part 2$
Click to view

Helpful Math slides - Unit 2 Part 2 (PowerPoint 1.9MB May21 21)
This activity will walk students through rate calculations and plotting of trend lines. If students need additional preparatory exercises, some are available on The Math You Need When You Need It tutorial on rates of change. The attached presentation Helpful Math slides - Unit 2 Part 2 (PowerPoint 1.9MB May21 21) can be used to walk students through definitions of rates, trend lines and anomalies. In Part 3, students will look at temperature and sea level rise data and calculate rates of change and draw trend lines.

Part 3:

In class, students will be provided with an air temperature time series from 1992-present and sea level data for the same time period. (Depending on class size, time constraints, and whether Unit 2 is being used in a lecture or lab setting, the instructor may choose to provide students with a time series or have students create their own time series by hand or using the Excel file.) Students will calculate temperature and sea level trends and use their calculations to project temperature and sea level data points for the year 2100.

Unit 2: activity (student) (Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 1MB May21 21)
Unit 2: activity (student) PDF (Acrobat (PDF) 1MB May21 21)
Unit 2: activity (instructor answer key) -- private instructor-only file
Unit 2: activity (figures) (PowerPoint 2007 (.pptx) 1.6MB May21 21)
Click to view

Raw data (if instructors want students to create the plots themselves). Guides for teaching with Excel are available. (Resources Graphing Tutorial: Graphing with Excel has a section on plotting trend lines that might be useful.)

Unit 2 Student Exercise Data.xlsx (Excel 2007 (.xlsx) 46kB Jul16 24)

Part 4:

Click to view

Instructors may want to spend some time describing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and projections. This can be done as a short gallery walk or in-class discussion using the attached presentation IPCC climate models - Unit 2 Part 4 (PowerPoint 15.8MB Nov12 15).

Teaching Notes and Tips

Depending on the components of Unit 2 that are implemented in class, the duration of brainstorming, and the teaching techniques employed (i.e., gallery walk vs. small group work vs. lecture vs. discussion), Unit 2 could consume 1-2 hours of class time. To prepare for Unit 2, instructors may choose to assign a preparation exercise on drawing trend lines and calculating rates of change. The activity worksheet (part 3) should be copied before class (each student should receive a copy, although they may work together to complete it), PowerPoint presentations should be downloaded, and instructors should have a copy of the answer key. Instructors implementing Unit 2 in a computer lab should download the raw data for constructing the time series prior to the class meeting. We recommend explicit discussion of the concept of anomalies before students begin the calculations. When students are considering the relationship between air temperature and sea level, we found that unless prompted to determine a mathematical relationship, many students simply stated that as air temperature increases, so does sea level. For additional teaching tips and descriptions of classroom implementation strategies, refer to the Instructor Stories page.

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Community Contributions

Freddi-Jo Bruschke, California State University-Fullerton Aug 26, 2024Updated Data

This article from 2021 is an updated analysis of Helheim glacier with additional figures

Williams, J. J., Gourmelen, N., Nienow, P., Bunce, C., & Slater, D. (2021). Helheim Glacier poised for dramatic retreat. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL094546. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094546

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL094546

Student activity questions would have to be adapted for these figures

Assessment

Formative assessment:

Example #1: After students have made their 2100 sea level prediction, instructors can poll the class (either informally or using a concept test for large-enrollment classes) to verify that student rate of change calculations match sea level calculations. Instructors can also assess during class whether student sea level and temperature projections fall within IPCC projections.
Example concept test format (this could be projected on a PowerPoint slide and answered using clickers, cell phones, or "close your eyes and raise your hand"):
Based on your calculations, which of the following is the best sea level prediction for the year 2100? (Provide four choices.)

Example #2: There are several informal and formal methods that instructors can use to assess the gallery walk available on the SERC website. The goal of this gallery walk is for students to compare their temperature/sea level predictions and their ideas about environmental contributors to sea level changes to published data.

Summative assessment questions:

Ice Mass and Sea Level Change module assessment instructor answers -- private instructor-only file

Level 1 example: (use the air temperature time series provided)
Calculate the average rate of change in air temperature from 2000 to 2023.
(Could also be done as a multiple-choice question, e.g., "What is the average rate of change in air temperature from 2000 to 2023?" with four choices.)

Level 2 example: (figure similar to NASA Global Temperature Trends provided)
You have been provided with data comparing global air temperatures between 1880 and 2010 to the average air temperature from 1961 to 1990. For example, a value of "0" for a particular year means that the air temperature was the same as the average air temperature from 1961 to 1990.

(A) How has air temperature risen or fallen from 1980 to 2010? By how much has global air temperature changed from 1980 to 2010? Please express your answer in degrees C.

(B) Name and describe two ways that this observed temperature trend could lead to changes in sea level. You may include labeled diagrams to support your answer, but you must include a written explanation.