Is there a present volcanic hazard?

The volcanic processes that created the Yellowstone Geoecosystem are still active. One way that geoscientists determine the likelihood of a certain type of eruption occurring is by documenting how often they have occurred in the past (i.e. the recurrence interval). We will explore the types of eruptions that Yellowstone is likely to produce and the probability of their occurrence. In this self-guided exercise, we will explore only one of a number of possible pathways to answer the question.

Use the supplied resources to answer the following questions:

Let's explore Yellowstone's volcanic history.

1. What type of large-scale, catastrophic eruption has occurred three times?
2. What is the average time between these three eruptions?
3. When was the last time that one of these events happened?
4. What type of non-explosive eruption has covered most of the Yellowstone Plateau?
5. When was the last time that one of these events happened?
6. What type of relatively small-scale, explosive event has occurred numerous times in and around Yellowstone Lake during the last 10,000 years?
7. When was the last time that one of these events happened?

Now that we know the basics of Yellowstone's volcanic past, let's explore the present.

1. Approximately how many earthquakes have occurred in the last week in Yellowstone National Park?
2. Are earthquakes in the Yellowstone related to crustal deformation and volcanism?
3. What areas have had the greatest deformation, when did it happen, and how much displacement was there?
4. Are catastrophic volcanic eruptions likely to happen without notice?
5. Why, or why not?
6. Does Yellowstone emit toxic gases?
7. If so, what kind?

Based on the previous resources and your findings so far, attempt to predict Yellowstone's volcanic future.

1. What is the likelihood of caldera-forming event in the next 10,000 years (probable/possible/unlikely)?
2. What is the likelihood of a lava flow event in the next 10,000 years (probable/possible/unlikely)?
3. What is the likelihood of a hydrothermal explosion in the next 10,000 years (probable/possible/unlikely)?

Now, answer the question to the best of your abilities: Is there a present volcanic hazard?

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Summary

As you probably discovered, there is no simple answer to the question, "Is there a present volcanic hazard?" However, a geologic hazard assessment of Yellowstone Geoecosystem is underway by the Yellowstone Volcanic Observatory. The assessment will evaluate the known and potential hazards at Yellowstone from earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and hydrothermal explosions.

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