What is the fate of CO2 produced by fossil fuel combustion?
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This page first made public: Oct 23, 2009
The carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is increasing as a result of combustion of fossil fuels. However, the observed atmospheric CO2 increase rate is only ~60% of the CO2 loading rate due to fossil fuel combustion. Why? We will answer this question using a box-model to simulate the earth's carbon cycle. The model will hindcast the atmospheric CO2 increase during the industrial era and compare it to the historic observations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The model will then be used to forecast future concentrations of atmospheric CO2 during the next century.
- To demonstrate, using a climate-change relevant issue, the utility of simple box models to quantitatively address problems in earth sciences.
- To demonstrate the use of a spreadsheet to construct box models.
- To use models to demonstrate the concept of steady-state and time rate of change.
- To examine the sensitivity of model predictions to model input.
- To provide an opportunity for model versus data comparison.
- To give students an estimate of the changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations that occurred over the last century and might occur over the next century.
Context for Use
Description and Teaching Materials
Activity Exercise (Microsoft Word 123kB Jul29 04)
Teaching Notes and Tips
- Typical modeling problems
- Possible follow up exercise
- Assign this exercise at your own risk and, preferably, if tenured.
References and Resources
Sarmiento, J. and N. Gruber (2002) . Sinks for Anthropogenic Carbon. Physics Today, 55(8), p.30. - This article provides excellent background for this modeling activity. The figures that appear in this activity are taken from this paper.