Future of the Cryosphere
In Lab 4, you explored the history of the cryosphere and looked at indicators of past climate, including ice cores. Now, you will consider the future of the cryosphere in a changing climate and how scientists use models to make predictions.
To complete a climate model, the physical equations, which represent how the spheres interact, are coupled with scenarios (described below) of how Earth's human population, land use, and economy will evolve. Once a climate model is run, the model output data is compared with the observed data from the past. This process allows scientists to check the accuracy of the models.
Worldwide, various teams of scientists have modeled the next century of climate change and the subsequent impacts. While the models show that rising global temperatures generally characterize the future world, human behavior will determine how dramatic the changes may be.
What is a scenario?
There are four commonly used scenario families. They are labeled A1, A2, B1, and B2. The scenarios describe the relationships between the forces driving greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and their potential future change during the 21st century for the globe.
Try the climate change questionnaire and learn more about scenarios
So, what does this all mean to me, the individual?
Try the interactive questionnaire, below, to see how your own individual lifestyle choices play out in a scenario and subsequent climate. Repeat the questionnaire several times and compare your results.
Questionnaire courtesy of The King's Centre for Visualization in Science
DiscussHow do individual lifestyle choices influence global climate change? Can one person really make a difference? Brainstorm and share ideas for changes in your lifestyle that you and your classmates and families can make.
Get a sense how much the temperature may increase
- First, go to the Climate Wizard Site and select the Map of change (in temperature) showing the United States.
- Next, on the left under Future Climate Model, select the High A2 "Emission Scenario" and the "Ensemble Highest" General Circulation Model. Set the Time Period to Mid Century (2050s), and choose Map of Change. Select the Average Temperature measurement.
- Once you have observed the changes in the time period 2050, change the time period to the 2080s.
- Check the Factoid box in the upper right corner of the map to reveal climate-related facts from different locations across the nation.
Consider projected changes where you live
Zoom into your home state, region, or city on the ClimateWizard map to see the predicted future changes in temperature.
DiscussPut climate change in perspective by considering the following:
- How old will you be in 2050, 2080?
- How much will the temperature in most of the United States have changed by 2080?
- Give several examples of how the increase in average temperature could impact your daily life.