Race & Incarceration in The USA Overtime: Analysis of Trends & Forecast

Shyamal Das, Elizabeth City State University

Location:

Abstract

The overall aim of this CURE is to incorporate a STEM component into social science as students run forecasting models for an important social problem in the United States. More generally, the course examines the evolving nature of America's social and cultural diversity in terms of different race and ethnic groups (Whites, Blacks, Hispanics, Asian-Americans, and American-Indians), and the issues of racial prejudice, hatred, and discrimination in the country. The research utilizes arrest data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics website. Students derive research questions and corresponding hypotheses based on their review of the literature. Based on their data analysis, they attempt to explain or interpret the arrest data on the relationship between race and the arrest rates by type of crime. There are two steps: (1) individuals carry out data gathering, analysis, and interpretation; and (2) groups of at least three students each prepare a collaborative final paper and present their collective findings to the class.

Student Goals

  1. Formulate research questions and testable hypotheses as well as state their predictions.
  2. Create and interpret informative graphs or other data visualizations.
  3. Make forecasts for a social problem.

Research Goals

  1. Identify the relationship between race & arrest rates for specific crimes over time.
  2. Make forecasts on the relationship between race & arrest rates for specific crimes for the next ten years.

Context

The course, "Sociology of Race & Ethnic Relations," is included in the social and behavioral segment of the General Education requirements. The CURE involves research on the relationship between race and incarceration in the United States. One reason for conducting research on this topic is that we see that the incarceration rates are over-represented by minority people, particularly Black males. According to Bureau of Justice Statistics data, less than 1% of Americans go to jail; among these people, 31% are Whites although they are 64% of the general population; by contrast, Blacks are 36% among the prison population although they are 14% of the general population. Among the Blacks, one in every four young males is incarcerated. Clearly, the prison population is unevenly distributed by race. The objective of the current research is to equip students with tools to assess the trends in incarceration rates over time so that they could relate different time points as well as social episodes and changes in these rates.

Bureau of Justice Statistics Database

Racial Inequality in the Criminal Justice System

In average class size is between 25 to 35. The course is a 200-level class with a duration of sixteen weeks in typical semesters, i.e., fall and spring. Students spend the first half of the course completing individual-level research. Then students carry out collaborative research in groups over the subsequent few weeks. Ultimately the completion of the work, including giving a presentation and writing a research paper, requires 10-12 weeks.

Target Audience: Major, Non-major, Upper Division
CURE Duration:A full term

CURE Design

With this CURE, I am aiming for my students to become familiar with scholarly work in the field and for scholars to see what students can accomplish. If students can help to generate an effective forecast about the future of rates of incarceration, this could be publishable and also could be used to help policymakers develop effective policies for reducing racial bias in arrests. I encourage my students to present their work at institutional, regional, and national conferences. I also aim for students to contribute to writing manuscripts about the work. It is important for them to learn how to prepare professional work.

Core Competencies: Deriving Research Questions, Reviewing Literature, Analyzing and interpreting Data, Planning and Carrying Out Investigations

Core Competencies:
Nature of Research:Basic Research

Tasks that Align Student and Research Goals

Research Goals →
Student Goals ↓
Research Goal 1: Identify the relationship between race & arrest rates for specific crimes over time.
Research Goal 2: Make a forecast on the relationship between race & arrest rates for specific crimes for the next ten years.


Student Goal 1: Formulate research questions and testable hypotheses as well as state their predictions.

(1) Write an Intro on the relationship between race & arrest rates for specific crimes over time.
(2) Create an annotated bibliography of ten scholarly sources published in the last five years on the relationship between race and arrest rates.
(3) Summarize the articles.
(4) Show the arguments of opposite camps.
(5) Find out the gaps in the existing knowledge/literature.
(6) Derive your take in this scholarly debate.
(7) Derive hypotheses with their predictions.

(1) Create an annotated bibliography of five scholarly sources published in the last five years on the future about the relationship between race and arrest rates about arrest rates.
(2) Summarize the articles.
(3) Show the arguments of opposite camps.
(4) Find out the gaps in the existing knowledge/literature.
(5) Derive your take in this scholarly debate.
(6) Derive hypotheses about the forecast.

 

APA Citation Basics.docx (Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 14kB Sep1 21)



Student Goal 2: Create and interpret informative graphs or other data visualizations.

(1) Derive the electronic big database from the Bureau of Justice Statistics. 
(2) Provide the source of data and justify why the source is valid and reliable. 
(3) Describe methods and analytical techniques. 
(4) Provide appropriate credentials to derive informative graphs and visualization of big data about arrest rates and race for several decades.
(5) Derive informative graphs and visualization for multiple decades.
(6) Convert the graphs into EXCEL to construct the trend lines. 
(7) Present graphs and visualizations in WORD document with appropriate numbering. 
(8) Interpret each graph following APA format.


Bureau of Justice Statistics

(1) Provide appropriate credentials to derive informative graphs and visualization of big data about arrest rates.
(2) Derive informative graphs and visualization for multiple decades.
(3) Convert the graphs into EXCEL to construct the forecast from the trend-lines.



Student Goal 3: Make forecasts for a social problem.

(1) Convert trend-lines to EXCEL.
(2) Follow the instructions about running the forecast.
(3) Run the commands for forecast in EXCEL.
(4) Save the figure and analyze the findings of the forecast.

(1) Convert the graphs into EXCEL to construct the trend lines. 
(2) Create forecasting for ten to fifteen years. 
(3) Interpret the results. 
(4) Write "Discussions" on findings of both trend lines and forecasting. 
(5) Write "Conclusion."
(6) Prepare the List of References.
(7) Prepare the final paper with all components: Intro, Lit Review, Hypotheses, Data & Methods, Findings, Discussion, Conclusion, and the List of references.


Instructional Materials

The assignment included here illustrates Step 1 of the final project. Each student selects an assigned crime type (see the Assignment Topics) from the Bureau of Justice Statistics database, and creates graphs to show the trends by race. Students assess whether arrest rates are related to race. Then each student runs another analysis to forecast the arrest rates for the coming ten to fifteen years. The final group-level results are presented in the class.

Assignment on individual research (Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 1.8MB May28 20)

Handout to Follow (Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 1.8MB May28 20)

Instructor's Video Clip on Steps to Follow (MP4 Video 42.3MB May28 20)

Assessment

At least 70% of the students need to score 75% or above in the assignment to consider the project as "Successful."

Rubric for the individual assignment (Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 17kB May28 20)

Grading Rubric (Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 17kB May28 20)

Instructional Staffing

The instructor teaching the course is primarily responsible for this project. However, depending on the availability of other faculty members and the department's interests, the project can be shared by sociology, criminal justice, and homeland security faculty members.

 

Author Experience

Shyamal Das, Elizabeth City State University

Even though I am a professor at a teaching institution, I have a strong neck towards research. Since the start of my career, I have incorporated research-based assignments in my courses. The CURE Workshop has provided me several tools to add to my skill set in incorporating research components in a more extensive way. So, I am motivated to develop and implement a CURE in my course.


Advice for Implementation

  1. From the very outset, I work to ensure that students feel a sense of ownership of the work. This helps them to stay motivated. If they see the work as another classroom assignment, they do not see it as their work. I emphasize how scholarly work difference from regular classwork and how important taking ownership is for the work to be scholarly. 
  2. I break down the larger tasks into several assignments (e.g., intro, lit review, hypothesis derivation, etc.) so that students will not be overwhelmed. Once they have the pieces generated, then they can shift to combining them. 
  3. I have found that most issues that arise in the CURE relate to workload. I encourage equitable distribution of workload by asking students to share their experiences of how to distribute workloads fairly. I also try to be present during their work time to make sure I am available to address any concerns related to workload and everyone doing their fair share of the work. If needed, I meet with students individually or as a group to help them navigate interpersonal issues or conflicts.

Iteration

When students face difficulties, they contact me and I work with them online or in a face-to-face meeting to address the issue. I also encourage them to consult their peers for help.

Using CURE Data

Students' research findings are utilized in my courses. For example, I use some selected findings in my Social Problems and Introduction to Sociology courses. I also encourage students to present their research in the University's Annual Research Week. Also, I have included students' results in a grant proposal on integrating STEM learning into social science courses.

Resources

Here are few resources that may be helpful: