# Oil Demand and Consumption

## Summary

Using US Government data from the Energy Information Administration in the Department of Energy, students create models of future oil demand and predict the time frame when cumulative oil demand exceeds oil reserves.

Using a limited number of data points regarding demand, students can create mathematical and graphical models (e.g., linear, exponential, polynomial) to fit the data.

Using the models, students can forecast future yearly energy demand and the cumulative energy demand over time.

Knowing that the estimated oil reserves in the world is 134,000 x 10^{6} barrels, students will predict that oil consumption meets or exceeds the reserves in 2030-2050. Moreover, if we would discover another deposit equivalent to the current Middle East reserve, oil consumption meets or exceeds these new reserves in 2060-2080.

## Learning Goals

- Recognize that energy is a conserved quantity.
- Realize that the use alternative sources of energy (besides oil) will need to increase.

- Recognize consequences of past energy policies and practices.
- Create, analyze, and use data tables and graphs.
- Review use of Excel spreadsheet input, use of equations, graphing and forecasting.
- Apply data analysis to real-world situations

## Context for Use

I have used this activity with non-science majors.

## Description and Teaching Materials

Using US Government data from the Energy Information Administration in the Department of Energy, students create models of future oil demand and predict the time frame when cumulative oil demand exceeds oil reserves.

The PowerPoint slides describe:

- Oil consumption by sector indicating that transportation is the largest user.
- Oil consumption by region indicating theta the developed regions (e.g., US, Europe, Asia) are the biggest current users
- Most of the oil reserves and production takes place in the OPEC countries.

Using a limited number of data points regarding demand, students can create mathematical and graphical models (e.g., linear, exponential, polynomial) to fit the data.

Using the models, students can forecast future yearly energy demand and the cumulative energy demand over time.

Knowing that the estimated oil reserves in the world is 134,000 x 10

^{6}barrels, students will predict that oil consumption meets or exceeds the reserves in 2030-2050. Moreover, if we would discover another deposit equivalent to the current Middle East reserve, oil consumption meets or exceeds these new reserves in 2060-2080.

Overview of Oil Demand Activity (Microsoft Word 26kB Jun29 09)

PPT Background (PowerPoint 1.7MB Jun29 09)

Intro Spreadsheet (Excel 17kB Jun29 09)

## Teaching Notes and Tips

## Assessment

## References and Resources

This is the Energy Information Agency for the US government. While it may provide biased data, it is the official agency for the government. If any bias exists, I predict that it would be toward lower energy consumption values and larger energy reserve values so that the case could be made that the current energy policy, production levels, and projected needs are both favorable and aligned.