Unit 4: Future ice margin response to climate

Alia Khan (Western Washington University)
Twila Moon (University of Colorado, Boulder)
Spruce Schoenemann (University of Montana Western)

Initial Publication Date: October 11, 2023

Summary

Future ice margin response to climate

For Unit 4, students consider the current volume of the Greenland Ice Sheet and also turn their attention to the future of the ice sheet. Using scientific reading and exploring the resulting GIS data, students consider the possible futures of the Greenland Ice Sheet, including regional differences in change and how the ice sheet changes act as a part of the connected Earth system.

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Learning Goals

Driving Question: What is the range of possible futures for the Greenland Ice Sheet size and shape?

Learning Goals: 1) Evaluate how the GrIS future margin depends on the climate scenario path. 2) Examine the expected spatial path of GrIS retreat as it relates to climate, topography, and ice dynamics

Context for Use

The content in Unit 4 is appropriate for upper-division geology, environmental sciences, meteorology, and other geoscience courses; junior/senior-level courses in which geomorphology, climatology, or glacial geology studies are building on prior introductory material. Unit 4 activities can easily be adapted to serve small- or large-enrollment classes and can be executed in lecture and lab settings as an interactive lecture activity, an in-class activity in which students work in small groups, a short lab exercise, or as part of a ~three-week investigation incorporating GIS and Interactive Environments to understand a glacier basin system and cryosphere using the entire Exploring the Glacier Basin System module. This is the fourth Unit in the Long-term Spatial Transformations of the Glacier Basin System module and explores the range of possible futures for the Greenland Ice Sheet size and shape, and how the expected spatial path of GrIS retreat is related to climate, topography, and ice dynamics.

Description and Teaching Materials

Part 1: Climate Scenarios and Greenland's Future

Using images and videos, students consider the current mass changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet and learn about how scientists use scenarios to project the future of the climate and the Greenland Ice Sheet. Students are introduced to the Aschwanden et al., 2019 research in preparation to interact with these data in QGreenland and QGIS.

In the Unit 4, Part 1 exercise, students begin by calculating the volume of the ice sheet at present and then predict how long it might take for the full ice sheet to melt away. They then consider ice sheet model results for a range of future climate scenarios, reflecting on the most likely scenario based on current global policies and commitments. Using the future ice sheet projections, students examine the spatial patterns of ice sheet change and the possible causes for creation of these patterns. Finally, students consider the wider system changes that may be reflected in this future landscape.

Part 2: Connecting Greenland with the Global Earth System and You!

Module 2 wrap-up where students consider how the future changes in Greenland impact the human and natural world globally. Consider sea level rise projections, along with precipitation and temperature changes.

If sharing in class, the Instructor can play the videos, or if assigned as homework, students can view the GCM projections of IPCC scenarios and explore the modelling tools below.

Think/Pair/Share (here are several suggested prompts):

  • How do the changes in Greenland interact with the global Earth system?
  • How might these broader changes impact your region locally; in your lifetime and 4 generations from now?
  • Beyond the physical environment, how would these changes impact communities, economies, livelihood, geopolitics, and culture?
  • How might scientific and technological advancements help mitigate the impacts of these climate changes?
  • What actions do you think should be taken at local, regional, or national levels to plan for these changes?

What we learned:

  • Evaluate how the GrIS future margin depends on the climate scenario path.
  • Examine the expected spatial path of GrIS retreat as it relates to climate, topography, and ice dynamics.
  • Explored how broader climate changes will impact local and regional communities over multiple timescales.

Teaching Notes and Tips

Tips from Other Instructors

  • There's ample opportunity in this Unit to expand the conversation about Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) science, including projection scenarios, report processes, connections across science and decision-making, and more.

Assessment

Assessment:Mod 2 Unit 4 Assessment (Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 1.3MB Apr30 23), Mod 2 Unit 4 Rubric (Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 19kB Sep8 22);

Map and image interpretations: Students use QGIS information to envision what the Greenland landscape will look like in the year 2300. Based on this information, they determine locations for future data collection and describe how changes to the physical landscape, as well as to the weather and seasons, will affect the built environment.

References and Resources

Briner, J. P., Cuzzone, J. K., Badgeley, J. A., Young, N. E., Steig, E. J., Morlighem, M., et al. (2020). Rate of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet will exceed Holocene values this century. Nature, 586(7827), 1–17. http://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2742-6

Aschwanden, A., Fahnestock, M. A., Truffer, M., Brinkerhoff, D. J., Hock, R., Khroulev, C., et al. (2019). Contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet to sea level over the next millennium. Science Advances, 5(6), eaav9396. http://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav9396

Aschwanden et al, 2019, Sci. Adv. Video of ice retreat/sea level rise out to 3007 CE. Aschwanden Sci Adv 2019 Simulation 3007.mp4 (MP4 Video 4.7MB Apr1 23)