Unit 4.5: It's All Connected, Right?

Angela Daneshmand, Santiago Canyon College

Initial Publication Date: September 20, 2024

Summary

How do we use data to develop weather forecasts? In this unit, a baseline for conditions that are necessary for severe weather (mid-latitude cyclones and fires) to form is established through research. Students analyze different types of national weather data to formulate warnings, advisories, outlooks, and general forecasts for weather. After using real data to develop weather forecasts, students engage in argument from evidence on what causes severe weather in particular areas, come to a conclusion on which type(s) of severe weather affects their campus the most, and develop a plan for making the campus more prepared for that particular type of severe weather.

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Learning Objectives

At the end of this unit, students will be able to:

  1. Analyze meteorological data on severe weather to make a claim about the conditions that cause these weather phenomena
  2. Assess the campus preparedness for severe weather and develop a plan for making the campus more prepared for that particular type of severe weather
  3. Analyze and interpret data to investigate how humans affect Earth and how Earth's processes affect humans in order to make decisions about societally-relevant issues
  4. Work in teams to problem-solve and communicate the results of scientific investigations

Context for Use

Unit 4.5 is the 5th part of Unit 4. Students become familiar with different types of severe weather and the conditions necessary for severe weather to occur. They make claims based on data to determine which type(s) of severe weather affects their campus most frequently. They use this information to evaluate their campus preparedness and make a plan to lessen the effects of severe weather on their campus for future events.

Target Audience:

This unit is intended for students in undergraduate level earth science courses, including entry-level courses designed for future educators.

Time Needed:

The activities in this unit are designed to take place over the course of one 85-minute class session and can be administered in face-to-face, synchronous, or asynchronous classes.

Prerequisite Skills Needed:

Basic meteorological terms and foundational concepts from Units 4.1-4.4 are needed to complete this unit. It is recommended that students are able to analyze and interpret data as learned in Unit 1.1: What is science and what do scientists do?, Unit 4.3: Identifying patterns and making connections, and Unit 4.4: Expertise at your fingertips.

Description and Teaching Materials

Teaching Materials:

  • This slide set serves as a guide through Unit 4.5. In addition to the student worksheet below, breakout session slides (slides 9-11) should be printed for each group (or accessed online if computers are available in the classroom). If using the slides online, the instructor should create a separate slide set for each group to access and work on.
    • Unit 4.5 Slide Set (PowerPoint 2007 (.pptx) 714kB Sep12 24)
  • The in-class worksheet will introduce students to key components of weather maps and guide them in identifying mid-latitude cyclones. Students will become familiar with air masses, types of fronts, and develop a baseline foundation for what conditions are necessary for mid-latitude cyclones to form. This will prepare them to create weather forecasts in class and use data to support their statements with evidence.
    • Unit 4.5 In-class Worksheet (Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 66kB Aug28 24) (also available as a PDF (Acrobat (PDF) 122kB Aug28 24))
    • (also available as a )
  • Daily Weather Maps are used in conjunction with the in-class worksheet. Students will practice analyzing and interpreting data to create weather forecasts for mid-latitude cyclones.
    • Daily Weather Maps (Acrobat (PDF) 37.8MB Jan19 24)
  • Fire Weather Forecasting Materials Activity created by Cody Kirkpatrick, Indiana University- Bloomington. This is a jigsaw activity where students analyze 1 of 4 data sets (relative humidity, wind gusts, cloud cover, and rainfall) and interpret where low/medium/high fire risks are based on their assigned data map. Then students regroup where one member from each specialty group gathers together, shares their data, and determines where the greatest fire risk occurs based on all 4 data sets.

85-minute Class Session Overview:

  • In-class Worksheet (45 minutes): Identifying Mid-Latitude Cyclones. Teams will work together to establish a baseline of conditions that will help them identify a mid-latitude cyclone on a daily weather map. As students move through the worksheet, they will be covering the following topics and completing the following objectives:
  • Breakout #1 (30 minutes): Fire Weather Forecasting Jigsaw. Activity created by Cody Kirkpatrick, Indiana University- Bloomington
    • As a class, watch these short videos:
    • Students split into teams of four and each person in the group has a different map distributed to them. They regroup based on the map they receive:
      • Forecast minimum relative humidity (percent)
      • Forecast maximum wind gust (kts)
      • Forecast cloud cover, to be used as a proxy for temperature
      • Estimated rainfall in the previous three days (inches)
    • Students should recall key terms/concepts from Units 4.1-4.4 (relative humidity, dew point temperature, adiabats, atmospheric stability, wind and wind related damages, precipitation, cloud formation, etc.) and apply that knowledge to analyze their map. Each team analyzes its map, answers the guided questions, and becomes an expert in its data set. As a group, students discuss areas that may be more prone to fire weather activity and plot them on their map.
    • Students return to their original groups, share information about their data set, and work together to determine where their four meteorological variables overlap to produce the greatest risk of fire weather.
    • The instructor hands out a blank map and students outline their area of "extreme fire weather risk" inside a broader area of "elevated fire weather risk." The key is to correctly locate the extreme risk region – there are numerous other variables that impact the elevated risk category that are beyond the scope of this course.
    • Once all students hand in their map, the instructor can reveal The Storm Prediction Center's "official" fire weather forecast for the day: http://vio.im/fire5.
  • Breakout #2 (10 minutes): Assessing Your Campus. Students analyze multiple datasets to make claims on changes in the weather conditions near their campus over time. Students communicate their findings with others during class presentations and come to a consensus on the severe weather type(s) that affect(s) their campus most frequently.
    • Answer the motivating question: How can our campus/community be prepared for severe weather events?

Teaching Notes and Tips

For all modalities, instructors are encouraged to transfer the PowerPoint slides into Google Slides for classroom and student use.

Face-to-Face Courses:

  • You will need to print out one student worksheet for every student and one daily weather map per group. If I have students that excel more than others, I give those students the weather map that has a bit more to interpret. If I feel a student might struggle with this assignment, I give them a weather map that is more straight forward to interpret.
  • If you do not have a class set of computers (or at least one computer for each group), it is best to print the in-class group work slides (slides 9-11) for each student group.

Synchronous Online Courses:

  • Students can access the Google Slides and complete them during a video conferencing session (e.g., Zoom) in breakout rooms. It is best for each group to have its own slide set (slides 9-11). The instructor is advised to set these up before class starts.
  • It is recommended to open the student worksheet in Google Docs and have students make a copy of the document so that they have an editable version.

Asynchronous Online Courses:

  • It is recommended to open the student worksheet in Google Docs and have students make a copy of the document so that they have an editable version. Students will need to be assigned a Daily Weather Map. They could post their completed map in a discussion board on the LMS or in a Padlet.
  • Breakout #1 can be done individually if the student has access to all the data maps. If the instructor would like to keep it as a jigsaw, they would need to assign data maps to each student and should consider using a video discussion board such as Padlet for students to present their information and ideas to the class.
  • Breakout #2 can be done individually. However, the instructor should consider using a discussion board or video discussion board on Padlet for students to present their information and ideas to the class.

Background Information Resources:


Assessment

Formative Assessment:

  • Fire weather forecasting jigsaw

Summative Assessment:

  • In-class worksheet
  • In-class worksheet slides
  • Quiz on main topics, including things such as:
    • Key terms: continental polar, continental tropical, maritime tropical, maritime polar, cold fronts, warm fronts, stationary fronts, occluded fronts
    • Differentiate between mid-latitude cyclones and hurricanes and define the importance of forecasting each.
    • Answering motivating question: How can our campus/community be prepared for severe weather events?
    • Instructor chooses an area and asks what type of severe weather will be in the area based on the given data
    • Reflecting on their ability to use science and engineering practices
  • Unit 4 Summative Assessment Examples (Acrobat (PDF) 33kB Sep10 24)

References and Resources

Air Now. Fire and Smoke Map, Interagency Wildland Fire Air Quality Response Program, 2022 https://fire.airnow.gov/

Bloch, Matthew, et al. Tracking Dangerous Heat in the U.S. The New York Times, 12 July 2022 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/us/heat-wave-map-tracker.html

Daily Weather Map Weekly PDF Files. Weather Prediction Center, NOAA https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/pdffiles.html

Dastrup, Adam. Air Masses | Weather Processes and Systems. Physical Geography, https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-geophysical/chapter/air-masses/.

Dastrup, Adam. Cyclones | Weather Processes and Systems. Physical Geography, https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-geophysical/chapter/cyclones/.

FEMA Flood Map Service Center. FEMA Flood Map Service Center, https://msc.fema.gov/portal/home

Future Heat Events and Social Vulnerability 2018. GeoXC Apps, https://geoxc-apps2.bd.esri.com/Climate/HeatVulnerability/index.html.

Gamio, Lazaro, et al. Tracking Heat across the World. The New York Times, 18 July 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/world/global-heat-map-tracker.html

How to Read Surface Weather Maps. JetStream, 6 June 2023, https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/wxmaps

Kirkpatrick, Cody. Fire Weather Forecasting: Practicum. Earth Educator's Rendezvous, 16 July 2017, https://serc.carleton.edu/earth_rendezvous/2017/program/demos/tuesdayB/174350.html

Matt Gutman Gets up Close with California Wildfires in Uncut Video. YouTube, ABCNews, 31 Oct. 2019, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LECAUn5dznw

Natural Hazards Viewer, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2022, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/hazards/?layers=0

NM Wildfire Update and Weather Forecast. YouTube, KRQE, 7 June 2013, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXLnPUnUMDE

NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, https://www.spc.noaa.gov/.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast (Print Version), NWS Storm Prediction Center, 28 Feb. 2017, https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/2017/170228_0758_fwdy1_print.html

Tornado Tracks 1950-2017, Purdue University, 2022, https://mrcc.purdue.edu/gismaps/cntytorn.htm#.

Understanding Severe Thunderstorm Outlook Categories. NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, https://www.spc.noaa.gov/partners/outlooks/.

U.S. Drought Monitor, National Drought Mitigation Center, 2022, https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/.

What Is a Mid-Latitude Cyclone? University of Illinois https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Midlatitude_cyclone.html

Wildfire Risk to Communities, US Forest Service, 2022, https://wildfirerisk.org/explore/.

Wolfe, Jonathan. Severe Storm Tracker. National Weather Service, 21 Apr. 2023, https://www.weather.gov/dlh/sst#