Unit 4: Water budget assessment of a California drought

Bruce Douglas, Indiana University (douglasb@indiana.edu)
Eric Small, University of Colorado (eric.small@colorado.edu)

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Initial Publication Date: June 22, 2017 | Reviewed: December 10, 2020 (see revision history: 3 events)

Summary

The California Drought of 2012–2016 had significant social and economic consequences. This final unit focuses on this drought as a case study for measuring the hydrologic system so that we can better understand fluxes, variability, uncertainties, and methods to measure them. Students analyze a variety of data that are relevant to basin-scale water budget: precipitation, terrestrial water storage, and snow pack. Traditional monitoring systems used are precipitation and snow pillow sensors. The newer geodetic methods are GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite) and Reflection GPS. The students then use these data to consider water storage changes during the drought and how these changes compare in magnitude to human consumption. The work can start during a lab period and carry over into work outside of the lab time. The student exercise takes the form of responses to questions and tasks that tests a student's abilities to synthesize information and identify challenges in monitoring the terrestrial water cycle. Students then take the step-by-step exercise results and synthesize it into a report for California water policy makers to highlight the findings and pro/cons/uncertainties for the different methods. Unit 4 is the summative assessment for the module.

Show more information on GPS versus GNSS

Note: Although the term GPS (Global Positioning System) is more commonly used in everyday language, it officially refers only to the USA's constellation of satellites. GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) is a universal term that refers to all satellite navigation systems including those from the USA (GPS), Russia (GLONASS), European Union (Galileo), China (BeiDou), and others. In this module, we use the term GPS even though, technically, some of the data may be coming from satellites in other systems.

Show more about Online Teaching suggestions

Geospatial, Extreme weather, Geodesy, Geophysics in other ...(more) | College Lower (13-14), College Upper (15-16)

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Topics

Geospatial, Extreme weather, Geodesy, Geophysics in other disciplines, Environmental Geology, Snowpack and Snow Melt, Ground Water, Surface Water, Surface Water , Groundwater , Water Conservation, Sustainability, Drought

Grade Level

College Lower (13-14), College Upper (15-16)

View Standards Details »

These materials have been reviewed for their alignment with the Next Generation Science Standards as detailed below.

Overview

Students analyze and interpret a variety of data relevant to precipitation, terrestrial water storage, and snow pack to understand fluxes, variability, uncertainties, and methods to measure them. A case study of the California Drought of 2012–2016 provides opportunity to compare the strengths and limitations of different types. Students critique existing monitoring systems and design a plan for improved monitoring of water resources.

Science and Engineering Practices

Using Mathematics and Computational Thinking: Use mathematical, computational, and/or algorithmic representations of phenomena or design solutions to describe and/or support claims and/or explanations. HS-P5.2:

Using Mathematics and Computational Thinking: Apply ratios, rates, percentages, and unit conversions in the context of complicated measurement problems involving quantities with derived or compound units (such as mg/mL, kg/m3, acre-feet, etc.). HS-P5.5:

Obtaining, Evaluating, and Communicating Information: Communicate scientific and/or technical information or ideas (e.g. about phenomena and/or the process of development and the design and performance of a proposed process or system) in multiple formats (i.e., orally, graphically, textually, mathematically). HS-P8.5:

Constructing Explanations and Designing Solutions: Apply scientific reasoning, theory, and/or models to link evidence to the claims to assess the extent to which the reasoning and data support the explanation or conclusion. HS-P6.4:

Analyzing and Interpreting Data: Compare and contrast various types of data sets (e.g., self-generated, archival) to examine consistency of measurements and observations. HS-P4.4:

Analyzing and Interpreting Data: Analyze data using tools, technologies, and/or models (e.g., computational, mathematical) in order to make valid and reliable scientific claims or determine an optimal design solution. HS-P4.1:

Cross Cutting Concepts

Stability and Change: Feedback (negative or positive) can stabilize or destabilize a system. HS-C7.3:

Scale, Proportion and Quantity: The significance of a phenomenon is dependent on the scale, proportion, and quantity at which it occurs. HS-C3.1:

Scale, Proportion and Quantity: Some systems can only be studied indirectly as they are too small, too large, too fast, or too slow to observe directly. HS-C3.2:

Patterns: Mathematical representations are needed to identify some patterns HS-C1.4:

Patterns: Empirical evidence is needed to identify patterns. HS-C1.5:

Patterns: Classifications or explanations used at one scale may fail or need revision when information from smaller or larger scales is introduced; thus requiring improved investigations and experiments. HS-C1.2:

Cause and effect: Changes in systems may have various causes that may not have equal effects. HS-C2.4:

Disciplinary Core Ideas

The Roles of Water in Earth's Surface Processes: The abundance of liquid water on Earth’s surface and its unique combination of physical and chemical properties are central to the planet’s dynamics. These properties include water’s exceptional capacity to absorb, store, and release large amounts of energy, transmit sunlight, expand upon freezing, dissolve and transport materials, and lower the viscosities and melting points of rocks. HS-ESS2.C1:

Earth Materials and Systems: Earth’s systems, being dynamic and interacting, cause feedback effects that can increase or decrease the original changes. HS-ESS2.A1:

Performance Expectations

Earth's Systems: Analyze geoscience data to make the claim that one change to Earth's surface can create feedbacks that cause changes to other Earth systems. HS-ESS2-2:

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Learning Goals

Unit 4 Learning Outcomes

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Lake Oroville, the second-largest state reservoir in northern California, experienced low water levels during the exceptional California drought. Shown here in 2014. (California Department of Water Resources)
Provenance: California Dept of Water Resources - available from NOAA http://www.noaa.gov/news/blog-tackling-americas-water-challenges-with-science
Reuse: This item is offered under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ You may reuse this item for non-commercial purposes as long as you provide attribution and offer any derivative works under a similar license.

This unit is intended to provide the summative assessment for the entire module. As such the students should demonstrate a mastery of the learning goals for the entire module. Students will be able to:

Analyze and integrate observations that describe the state of the hydrosphere at regional scales (spatial transfers/patterns, residence times, and societal needs/pressures.)
Quantitatively compare and contrast different data types, and their uncertainty, for use in the context of the water balance equation.
Critique/evaluate the utility of traditional versus geodetic data for quantifying fluxes and storage.
Compare the magnitude of human use in the basin to deficits associated with drought.

Show More info on how Module Goals connect to science literacy principles

Supports Earth Science Big Ideas ESBI-1—Earth scientists use repeatable observations and testable ideas to understand and explain our planet; ESBI-3—Earth is a complex system of interacting rock, water, air, and life; ESBI-4-Earth is continuously changing; ESBI-5—Earth is the water planet; ESBI-7—Humans depend on Earth for resources; and ESBI-9—Humans significantly alter the Earth and Climate Literacy Principles CLP-2—Climate is regulated by complex interactions among components of the Earth system; CLP-4—Climate varies over space and time through both natural and man-made processes; CLP-5—Our understanding of the climate system is improved through observations, theoretical studies, and modeling; CLP-6—Human activities are impacting the climate system; CLP-7—Climate change will have consequences for Earth system and humans. (link opens in new window)

Unit 4 Teaching Objectives

Cognitive: Characterize water storage reservoirs that together constitute the terrestrial water balance. Defend explanations for the spatial and temporal variations observed.
Behavioral: Promote skills in reading and interpreting maps and plots of precipitation and snow data, some of which illustrate snapshots in time and some of which illustrate changes over time (time-series). Facilitate a synthesis of multiple types of observational tools and basis for measurements (traditional hydrologic, GPS, GRACE, ) to make predictions about the behavior of a natural system.
Affective: The student will assess the critical local, regional, and climate-dependent interplay between precipitation, snow accumulation, and groundwater storage that may contribute to changes in a natural system and competition between these water gains and losses. Students will critique about the role of uncertainty in scientists' understanding of a complex system.

Context for Use

This activity is intended for use as a summative assessment for the entire module and gives students the opportunity to apply knowledge gained in the other units. This unit cannot be completed successfully without the skill and knowledge gained from previous units. Although Units 1–3 could be done without Unit 4, this unit really does provide an excellent opportunity for students to apply their new skills in a societally relevant context and introduces a new technique for measuring snow depth. The overall structure of this activity can be adapted for use in lower-level courses. This might require more group work throughout and could be heavily structured by the instructor (for example, by providing a template).

Description and Teaching Materials

Unit 4 is intended to serve as the summative assessment for the entire module, Measuring Water Resources with GPS, Gravity, and Traditional Methods. As such it includes materials and student activities that have been introduced in previous units, with one exception. This is the inclusion of an additional method of measuring and monitoring snow depth through reflected GPS signals. The unit focuses on the problem of water balance in response to drought conditions in California. Given this subject matter, there is wide opportunity to include socially relevant discussions and applications of various means of determining a water budget. The different techniques provide independent lines of working with the water balance equation. In order to give students practice in moving from thinking like students to considering how scientific analyses need to be converted to those useable by nonscientists, the final portion of the assignment requires the students to reframe what they have determined into a report useable for a California policy maker trying to determine steps to take based on findings from scientists.

The student exercise consists of sections A–H, which walk the students through data exploration and societal consideration steps.

A) Water Use
B) Precipitation
C) Snow data—includes both snow pillow data (which students also encountered in Unit 2) and GPS Reflection (which is new to the students in this unit)
D) GRACE data—students worked with gravity in Unit 2
E) Comparing components of the water balance—asks the students to consider the water storage changes based on different datasets within the context of the water balance equation
F) Water usage and drought revisited—asks the students to compare water usage in California with the deficit in precipitation and terrestrial water storage
G) Evaluate current monitoring network—students evaluate the pros/cons of traditional and geodetic water monitoring methods
H) Reflection on what they have learned

In the final activity of the unit, students synthesize the step-by-step exercise they were led through into a report intended for California policy makers.

Teaching Materials

Unit 4 background presentation (PowerPoint 2007 (.pptx) 8.4MB Nov3 20)
- Presentation includes the background information needed for completing the Unit 4 exercise.
  
  Click to view
Student exercise and supporting files
- Unit 4 student exercise (Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 1.1MB Mar7 18)
  Unit 4 student exercise PDF (Acrobat (PDF) 633kB Mar7 18)
- Unit 4 student exercise data files (Zip Archive 15.7MB Mar7 18)
  Includes
  - PDF & Google Earth maps: Sacramento-San Joaquin overview basin map, GRACE total water storage anomalies, and snow pillow SWE anomalies
  - Spreadsheets: precipitation, snow data (both snow pillow and reflection GPS)
Student final report for California policy makers
- Unit 4 student final report for policy makers (Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 329kB Jun10 17)
  Unit 4 student final report for policy makers PDF (Acrobat (PDF) 336kB Jun10 17)
- Unit 4 student final report for policy makers grading rubric (Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 126kB Jun10 17)
  Unit 4 student final report for policy makers grading rubric PDF (Acrobat (PDF) 57kB Jun10 17)
  - It is always good to give students the rubric you will be grading with. It is particularly essential for this report assignment.
Instructor files and answer keys
- Unit 4 student exercise answer key -- private instructor-only file
- Unit 4 instructor data files and plots -- private instructor-only file

Updating Unit 4 Data Sets

For more information on where and how to update the data used in this unit, please refer to the instruction sheet below:
- Notes on Updating Unit 4 Data (Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 17kB Nov3 20)

Teaching Notes and Tips

Unit 4 is intended to be a synthesis of the different techniques and concepts covered in the module, as applied to a real-world scenario, emphasizing potential societal impacts. While it is hoped that the students will be able to work with a great deal of independence, it may be necessary to support students as they progress through the Unit 4 workflow and, where necessary, help them in recalling and applying previously learned material. A new technique is introduced for measuring snow depth, but it is similar to other techniques the students have been working with. This final exercise is intended to take longer than the previous units, which could be finished within a normal laboratory period and homework/write-up time (consistent with the course being one for advanced majors), but it may require additional time considering it is intended to serve as the summative assessment. As stated, Unit 4 is anticipated to require the students to work longer outside of laboratory meeting time and could be scheduled such that a second laboratory session could be used as a time when the faculty member would be available for consultation and guidance to catch misconceptions and also minimize time spent pursuing dead ends. This exercise will serve as a useful reinforcement of the technical skills already acquired by working on Units 1–3, and may add some additional technical skills.
Students will respond to directions for a series of tasks, including responses to questions based on information provided or in response to calculations and data table assembly that they produce based on previous exercises (comparing and contrasting to reflect on learning). Through working on these tasks, students will integrate a number of different aspects from subdisciplines within the geosciences, such as surficial processes, hydrology, and quantitative analysis and error analysis, along with various remote-sensing technology, geodetic data sets, and spatial and temporal context.
The student handout focuses on the 2014 water year because GRACE data from the 2015 water year were not yet available at the time of module construction. Sections C, D, and E of the handout could be adjusted to include both the 2014 and 2015 water years, or to replace the 2014 analysis.
The unit requires use of computers. Ideally each student will have their own computer or laptop. At least there should be one computer per work group. If it is not feasible to use computers during the class/lab period, the instructor should take extra steps to make sure that students understand what is required of them to do the exercise outside of class.
Students may need help with specific Excel functions such as "slope" to calculate the trend. They may also need help thinking through how to "detrend" the position data.
The Teaching with Spreadsheets across the Curriculum site provides support for teaching with programs such as Excel. If your students need supporting math practice, The Math You Need site provides an opportunity to brush up on skills such as graphing and unit conversion. Teaching with Google Earth provides a variety of resources for using this powerful program during teaching.

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Assessment

Unit 4 is the primary summative assessment for the module. Given the organization of the unit it may be easiest to make two different assessments: one based on the short responses to the directed questions and one based on the student's report with some sort of combined or weighted summed score forming the final summary assessment. The report will be based in large part on the student's responses to the directed task/questions so it could be used as the sole assessment. Instructors can modify this rubric to assign point values in a manner that is consistent with their course-grading scheme. Student metacognition is an important part of the learning process. The Unit 4 student handout includes a final section that asks the students to reflect on their own learning during this module and its personal significance. Students' responses to this section should not be included in the overall grade, but responses can be scored using the rubric included in the handout.

Unit 4 example student exercise rubric (Microsoft Word 104kB Jun10 17)

Unit 4 student final report for policy makers grading rubric (Microsoft Word 2007 (.docx) 120kB Jun10 17)

References and Resources

Reflection GPS

PBO H2O Data Portal - using GPS reflection data from the Plate Boundary Observatory to study the water cycle
- Note: since the writing of this module, the active processing of the PBO H2O reflection GPS data have stopped. However the archive of data are still accessible from this link.
Video: Governors Award for High Impact Research - this short video overviews the significance and surprise of reflection GPS

Drought Impacts

Hydrologic perspective from USGS: http://ca.water.usgs.gov/data/drought/drought-impact.html
Understanding California's Groundwater: http://waterinthewest.stanford.edu/groundwater/overview/index.html
Some news articles

Report Writing

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Unit 4: Water budget assessment of a California drought

Summary

Learning Goals

Unit 4 Teaching Objectives

Context for Use

Description and Teaching Materials

Teaching Materials

Updating Unit 4 Data Sets

Teaching Notes and Tips

Assessment

References and Resources

Reflection GPS

Drought Impacts

Report Writing

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