Precipitation Frequency and Storm Analysis in Operational Hydrology

Precipitation Frequency and Storm Analysis in Operational Hydrology HydroLearn View Course Problem Statement Operational forecasters and hydrologists require knowledge of the probability and severity of extreme rainfall events to communicate potential risks effectively. A critical tool is the precipitation frequency-duration curves, which characterize the likelihood of rainfall events of varying intensities and durations at the given locations. Challenges arise in constructing and interpreting these curves in the context of weather forecasts, infrastructure designs, emergency responses, and the evolving nature of climate systems. These challenges highlight the need for a learning module to build knowledge around these operational contexts. Module Overview This module provides foundational context for operational hydrologists to make real-time forecasts in extreme rainfall events and provide information in long-term planning and response, with potential consideration of changing climatic conditions. Topics Covered Precipitation statistics; Probability distribution; Exceedance Probability and Return Period; Depth-Duration-Frequency Curve; Stationary vs. Nonstationary; NOAA Atlas 14; NOAA Atlas 15; Access forecast rainfall; Access gauge rainfall. Prerequisites This module includes hands-on activities in Python Jupyter Notebook in CUAHSI HydroShare. A basic working knowledge of Python would assist the process. Learning Objectives At the end of this module, students will be able to: Derive the depth duration frequency curve (DDF) Interpret the frequency and return period of extreme events Evaluate the severity of forecast and recorded storm events Describe a precipitation frequency application in hydrology and engineering This will be accomplished through a series of short readings on fundamental concepts, accompanied by learning activities in sections. Suggested Implementation This module is broken down into sections with small units. Each section is self-contained and can be exercised individually. Course Authors Mohamed Abdelkader Stevens Institue of Technology mabdelka@stevens.edu Yinphan Tsang University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa tsangy@hawaii.edu Target Audience Operational hydrologists and forecasters Tools Needed The module included activities in CUAHSI HydroShare Expected Effort The module developers estimate that this module will take between 2 to 3 hours to complete. Course Sharing and Adaptation This course is available for export by clicking the "Export Link" at the top right of this page. You will need a HydroLearn instructor studio account to do this. You will first need to sign up for a hydrolearn.org account, then you should register as an instructor by clicking 'studio.hydrolearn' and requesting course creation permissions. Recommended Citation Abdelkader, M., Tsang, Y. (2025) Precipitation Frequency and Storm Analysis in Operational Hydrology. CIROH. https://edx.hydrolearn.org/courses/course-v1:CIROH_HydroLearn+OP_020+2025/about. Adapted From This module is adapted from Development of Design Storms This module uses Hurricane Helene as a case study and use datasets from Asheville, NC. This module utilizes Python JupyterNotebook to allow a streamlined process in the learning activities. Acknowledgments This project received funding under award NA22NWS4320003 by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Cooperative Institute Program to the Cooperative Institute for Research on Hydrology (CIROH) through the University of Alabama. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of NOAA.