Quantitative concepts: probablility, recurrence intervals, logarithms
How big was that quake?
by Dr. Eric M. Baer, Geology Program, Highline Community CollegeEssential Concepts
Generally there are several main concepts that our students struggle with when thinking about earthquake magnitude and size:
- the difference between earthquake magnitude, damage (intensity), and shaking,
- quantitatively measuring earthquake size including magnitudes, moment, and energy released,
- measuring earthquake damage, including intensity and the factors that determine intensity,
- how to measure earthquake shaking
The difference between earthquake magnitude, intensity, and shaking
Ask many seismologists what the most critical and common misunderstanding about earthquakes is and they will answer "the difference between magnitude and intensity." Earthquake intensity and magnitude measure different things and are often misunderstood, and it is shaking that links them.
Earthquake intensity is a measurement of damage. Earthquake magnitude is a measurement of the "size" of the quake - typically related to the amount of energy released. There is one magnitude for an individual quake, but the intensity varies significantly. Earthquake shaking is typically measured as an acceleration; higher magnitude earthquakes cause more violent shaking, which in turn typically cause higher intensity.
People often think that magnitude of the earthquake is the only factor that determines damage. Typically this will be shown by someone asking if a particular building will withstand a "magnitude 8" earthquake - and ignoring the distance, duration, hazards other than shaking, and other factors.
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HideHow big was that quake? magnitudes, moments, and energy
When one asks "how big was that earthquake?" the answer is qualitative because it depends on what is meant by "big." There are several ways that the size of the earthquake can be measured quantitatively. The size of earthquakes is typically given as a magnitude.
Earthquake magnitude: MB, ML, MS, Mw - and what is the Richter Magnitude anyways?
There are at least 4 different measurements of magnitude in use today. This causes quite a bit of confusion. The most popular and well known is the Richter magnitude (ML), also known as the local magnitude. It is also the worst of the four. The body-wave (MB) and surface-wave magnitudes (MS) are offshoots of the Richter magnitude using those particular waves only. Finally, the fourth and perhaps least known is the best estimate of the size of the earthquake, the moment magnitude (Mw)
The Richter Magnitude
Charles Richter developed the Richter magnitude in 1935. It is defined as the logarithm of the amplitude (measured in thousandths of millimeters or microns) of the largest seismic wave measured 100 km from the epicenter on a particular brand of seismometer. The definition is an excellent place to start dissecting the problems with the Richter magnitude.
The first part of the definition creates the most confusion. The Richter scale is logarithmic, meaning that for each increase in the magnitude there is a 10-fold increase in the shaking. Few people understand this and it leads to substantial problems.
The logarithmic nature of the Richter magnitude isn't the only source of this scale:
- The Richter magnitude measures the largest seismic wave no matter what type it is p, s, or surface (For more information on seismic wave types see the seismic waves page). Duration does not mater.
- ML also is defined for seismograph 100 km from the epicenter , which is unlikely. Error-prone corrections must be made to estimate what the shaking would have been 100 km from the epicenter.
- The model of seismograph that Richter used is no longer in service and so other seismographs have to be calibrated to Richter's standard; this model was particularly sensitive to waves of one frequency, so earthquake magnitude was often determined by this single frequency waves.
Moment magnitude
The moment magnitude (Mw) scale is the most common magnitude scale in use among seismologists today, and seems to more reliably indicate the size of the earthquake than other. The moment magnitude is based on the seismic moment, which is determined by multiplying the amount of slip on the fault, the size of the fault plane, and the strength of the rock. This gives a result that is closer to measuring the amount of energy released by the earthquake. The moment magnitude is also logarithmic, however, and thus has some of the same drawbacks as the Richter magnitude. It is also somewhat harder to measure.
The seismic moment
While most introductory students have not encountered moments before, I find that they can understand the concept of a seismic moment. It is only the name that stymies them! The seismic moment (MO) is- MO = µAd
Seismic energy
Whereas seismic moments are more precise, students believe they understand the measurement of seismic energy better - the amount of energy released by a quake. The measurement of energy does allow earthquake size to be related to some events that are more familiar to some students. For example, the great Sumatran earthquake released 5x1025ergs, which is the energy released by 1200 megatons of TNT. The largest US nuclear weapon had a yield of 25 megatons TNT.
None of the four magnitude scales, the seismic moment or even the amount of energy released measure what most people want to know, and that is how shaking occurred, and how much damage was done.
Earthquake intensity - the real measure of the "badness" of the earthquake
Earthquake damage is measured on an intensity scale, the most common being the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale.
The Mercalli scale is denoted by roman numerals in order to differentiate it from magnitude scales. It is an integer scale – there is no ranking between IV and V. The lowest number, MMI I, is for areas where the quake was barely perceived, often only by instruments. The maximum value, MMI XII is for virtually complete destruction.
Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale of 1931I
Not felt by people, except under especially favorable circumstances. However, dizziness or nausea may be experienced. Sometimes birds and animals are uneasy or disturbed. Trees, liquids, bodies of water may sway gently.
II
Felt indoors by a few people at rest, especially on upper floors of multi-story buildings. As in Grade I, birds and animals are disturbed, and trees, structures, liquids, and bodies of water may sway. Delicately suspended hanging objects may swing.
III
Felt quite noticeably indoors; especially on upper floors of buildings. Hanging objects swing. Vibration like passing of light trucks. May not be recognized as an earthquake. Standing automobiles may rock slightly. Duration may be estimated.
IV
Hanging objects swing. Vibration like passing of heavy trucks; or a jolt like a heavy ball striking the walls. Standing automobiles rock noticeably. Windows, dishes, doors rattle. Glasses clink. Wood walls and frames creak. Felt indoors by many during the day; outdoors by few. Some awakened at night. Liquids in open vessels are disturbed slightly.
V
Felt outdoors; direction estimated. Sleepers awakened. Liquids disturbed, some spilled. Small unstable objects displaced or upset. Doors swing, close, open. Shutters, pictures move. Pendulum clocks stop, start, change rate. Some windows may be broken; cracked plaster in a few places. Disturbances of trees, poles, and other tall objects sometimes noticed (slight shaking).
VI
Felt by all. Many frightened and run outdoors. Persons walk unsteadily. Windows, dishes, glassware broken. Knickknacks, books, etc. off shelves. Pictures off walls. Furniture moved or overturned. Weak plaster and masonry D (Weak materials, such as adobe; poor mortar; low standards of workmanship) cracked. Small bells ring. Trees, bushes shaken (visibly or heart to rustle). Damage slight. Liquids are set in strong motion.
VII
Frightens everyone. Difficult to stand. Noticed by drivers of automobiles. Hanging objects quiver. Furniture broken or overturned. Damage to masonry D, including cracks. Weak chimneys broken at roofline. Fall of plaster, loose bricks, stones, tiles cornices, parapets. Some cracks in masonry C (Ordinary workmanship and mortar; no extreme weaknesses like failing to tie in at corners, but neither reinforced nor designed against horizontal forces). Waves on ponds; water turbid with mud. Small slides and caving in along sand or gravel banks. Large bells ring. Damage is negligible in building of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary buildings; considerable in poorly built structures.
VIII
Alarm approaches panic. Steering of moving cars affected. Trees shake strongly, and branches break off. Sand and mud erupt in small amounts. Changes in flow of wells and springs. Decays pilings broken off. Cracks in wet ground and on steep slopes. Heavy furniture overturned. Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse; great in poorly built structures. Twisting, fall of chimneys, factory stacks, towers, elevated tanks. Frame houses moved on foundations if not bolted down; loose panel walls thrown out.
IX
General panic. Ground cracks conspicuously. Damage considerably in specially designed structures; well-designed frame structures thrown out off plumb; great in substantial buildings, with partial collapse. Buildings shifted off foundations. Underground pipes broken. Sand boils develop. Serious damage to reservoirs.
X
Most masonry and frame structures and foundations are destroyed. Well-built wooden structures and bridges are severely damaged, and some collapse. Ground, especially where loose and wet, cracks up to widths of several inches; Sand and mud shift horizontally on beaches and flat land. Large landslides. Water is splashed (slopped) over banks. Open cracks and broad wavy folds open in cement pavements and asphalt road surfaces. Dams, dikes, embankments are seriously damaged. Railroad rails bend.
XI
Few (masonry) structures remain standing. Damage is severe to wood frame structures. Bridges destroyed. Broad fissures in ground. Underground pipelines completely out of service. Earth slumps and land slips in soft ground.
XII
Damage is total. Large rock masses displace. Waves seen on ground surfaces. Lines of sight and level distorted. Objects thrown upward into air.
The Modified Mercalli Intensity scale is based on human observations of damage and effects of earthquakes, not any measurement by a machine. In fact, on their web site, the U.S.G.S. currently requests damage reports from anyone who has felt an earthquake. This information is gathered to produce an intensity map quickly and from many sources.
Each earthquake event has a wide range of intensities, even though each event has a single magnitude. Intensity is determined by a number of factors including:
- the amount, duration, and frequency of seismic shaking
- building construction
- nature of non-shaking hazards (such as liquefaction, tsunami, and landsliding).
The MMI scale has some obvious advantages but is not without its problems. It is somewhat subjective; some areas have characteristics of two or more intensities; an intensity map may take a long period to develop; and finally, scale is not always appropriate to all areas of the world with different building practices. Despite all of these detractions, a good intensity map is probably the best way to answer the question "how bad was this quake?"
Intensity is typically shown on an isoseismal map - a contour map of the intensity. I find construction of these maps as an in-class activity (see below)is an excellent reinforcement of the concepts of contour maps that I emphasize in other parts of the course, including topographic maps.
Measuring shaking - the primary determinant of damage and intensity
Shaking is one of the primary determinants of damage, and is something that most students can relate to but is rarely dealt with quantitatively. This is a shame, since it is an excellent opportunity to tie the clear consequences of an earthquake to the fundamental equations of physics.
Shaking in an earthquake is measured in a variety of ways, but the most common single measurement is the maximum shaking, typically measured as a peak ground acceleration (PGA). Other units that are important may include peak ground velocity, duration of shaking, and the spectraldistribution of seismic shaking. Acceleration is often the primary consideration in looking at shaking because it determines how much force an earthquake impacts on a building, and thus if a building will stand. Many students may be familiar with the equation
F = m a
Units of shaking: g isn't grams!
Accelerations are typically measured in units of g, where g is the acceleration due to gravity on the surface of the Earth. An acceleration of 1.0 g would alternatively throw you up in the air and slam you to the ground with twice the force of gravity alone. This rarely occurs in earthquakes, and would cause catastrophic damage if it occurred for any length of time. Typical accelerations in earthquakes are between 0.05 and 1 g. 0.005g would be barely felt (and not felt by many), shaking over 0.05 g is unpleasant, and few buildings would survive an acceleration of more than 0.5 g. Since shaking is almost always less than 1 g, it is also reported as a percent of g. Thus shaking of 0.1 g would often be labeled 10% g.
Since shaking is one of the primary causes of damage, there is a clear trend of higher accelerations causing greater damage and therefore greater intensities. As a result there is a correlation between acceleration and Mercalli Intensity.
| Modified Mercalli Intensity | Acceleration (g) |
| I | .0017-.0005 |
| II | .0017-.005 |
| III | 0.005-0.014 |
| IV | 0.014-0.039 |
| V | 0.039.-0.092 |
| VI | 0.092-0.18 |
| VII | 0.18-0.34 |
| VIII | 0.34-0.65 |
| IX | 0.65-1.24 |
| X+ | Above 1.24 |
While the peak acceleration is important, and is indeed the crucial number that many, if not most, engineers design buildings for, it is not the only control on damage. The duration of shaking is also important because the materials that buildings are made of, especially steel, can become fatigued. So a structure may withstand a force of 0.2g for a short while, the bending that the movement causes weakens the edifice until it might fail. This can be easily seen by bending a paper clip many times. Never is any more force being applied to the clip, but each time it is bent, it is easier to bend it until it breaks. This is a particular problem in large buildings that are designed to sway in earthquakes. Swaying initially is generally good as it dissipates the seismic forces, allowing the building to stand, however the swaying can lead to catastrophic failure due to fatigue.
Teaching Examples
- Earthquake Shaking and Damage This is a student homework exercise designed to familiarize students with earthquake shaking, acceleration, intensity and hazards, including the quantitative measurement of these properties. Students examine quantitative measurements of earthquake hazard from the U.S.G.S. then use these numbers to determine the damage to their homes (or another location) that could be inflicted by a quake with a 500-year recurrence interval (10% probability of exceedence in 50 years). By using students' own homes, they see the impacts of shaking, hazard, and intensity in a more personal, connected way.
- Seismic Shaking and Earthquake Engineering lab An exercise to help students become familiar with the effects of earthquakes on Earth materials and on buildings. The exercise examines the strength of shaking during an earthquake, seismic waves, earth materials, building design and impacts.
- Magnitude 10.5 - is it possible? The links include an earthquake simulator which has students input the factors of a fault (rupture length, displacement, and depth) to discover how these factors impact the moment magnitude.
- Earthquake Shaking – Building Contest and Shake Table Testing Activity This activity has students build buildings and test to see how resistant to shaking they are. Using the recommended accelerometers, it can give a student an excellent idea of why shaking matters.
- The Richter Scale Activity This interactive macromedia page allows students to use a nomogram to determine the ML for 4 different quakes.
- Activity on intensity maps This activity will have students work through two exercises that will demonstrate the construction of intensity maps, introduce the basic Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale, and have the build their own map online for the purpose of locating the epicenter of an earthquake.
Resources
There are too many excellent resources on the subject of the size of an earthquake to list all here. However, some good starts:- Earthquakes (5th Ed.) The best single reference on this topic written for the non-geophysicist.
- Learning and Information from the U.S.G.S. Earthquake Hazards Program This entry into the educational part of the U.S. Geologic survey includes links to earthquake facts, a glossary, and resources for students and teachers.
- Several U.S.G.S. fact sheets discuss these topics:
- "ShakeMaps"-Instant Maps of Earthquake Shaking
- Earthquake Shaking-Finding the "Hot Spots"
- Did You Feel It? Community-Made Earthquake Shaking Maps
- The Severity of an Earthquake Describes magnitude and Mercalli intensity scales.
- Investigating Earthquakes through Regional Seismicity This module has a great deal of information about earthquakes including many very nice activities. Module 3 is particularly relevant to these topics.
