The current consensus is that up to half of the modern atmospheric dust load originates from anthropogenicallyâ€disturbed soils. Here, we estimate the contribution to the atmospheric dust load from agricultural areas by calibrating a dustâ€source model with emission indices derived from dustâ€storm observations. Our results indicate that dust from agricultural areas contributes less than 10 percent to the global dust load. Analyses of future changes in dust emissions under several climate and landâ€use scenarios suggest dust emissions may increase or decrease, but either way the effects of climate change will dominate dust emissions.
