This report is an attempt to describe what is known about abrupt climate changes and their impacts, based on paleoclimate proxies, historical observations, and modeling. Large, abrupt climate changes have repeatedly affected much or all of the earth, locally reaching as much as 10 Celsius degrees change in 10 years. Available evidence suggests that abrupt climate changes are not only possible but likely in the future, potentially with large impacts on ecosystems and societies. The report does not focus on large, abrupt causes like nuclear wars or giant meteorite impacts, but rather on new findings that cite gradual causes that push the earth system across a threshold. The slow effects of drifting continents, wobbling orbits or changing atmospheric composition may "switch" the climate to a new state. Faster earth-system changes, whether natural or human-caused, are likely to increase the probability of encountering a threshold that triggers a still faster climate shift.
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