Introduction to Hazard and Risk: Part 2
- From a table of earthquake occurrences, calculate both the recurrence interval and probability of occurrence in any given year for a great Cascadia earthquake (this is the hazard term of the risk equation).
- Compute the monetary exposure term of the risk equation by adjusting 1994 numbers to 2010 by accounting for inflation and growth.
- Compute the mortality and monetary risk based on the risk equation and the results of the previous steps.
- Use these same Excel tools to investigate the relationship between recurrence interval and probability for earthquakes along three other faults.
In the process the students will:
- Discover how recurrence interval and probability are related, and how probability of an earthquake can be computed from historical data.
- Learn how to use Excel to multiply and add numbers in a table, including the use of relative and absolute cell references which allow formulas to be copied.
- Better understand the source of the terms in the risk equation, and the effect each has on the computation of risk.
- Work with actual data to compute a meaningful measure of risk, and compare this value to other sources of risk.
- Master common Excel skills.
Context for Use
Description and Teaching Materials
Hazard and Risk 2 (PowerPoint 1.8MB May15 12)
Optimal results are achieved with Microsoft Office 2007 or later; the module will function in earlier versions with slight cosmetic compromises. If the embedded spreadsheets are not visible, save the PowerPoint file to disk and open it from there.
The above PowerPoint presentation is the student version of the module. The embedded spreadsheet consists of a template for students on which students complete their work and answer the end-of-module questions, and then turn in for grading. Since this module is designed as a stand-alone resource, instructions for extracting and saving the embedded spreadsheet are included in the PowerPoint presentation.This module is offered in two versions: a traditional SSAC version and a new auto-feedback/graded (AFG) version. The AFG version: (a) provides automatic and immediate feedback to incorrect answers, including formulas; (b) requires students to complete tasks sequentially by not allowing them to advance until they've completed a task perfectly; and (c) automatically computes a grade and encrypts it into a code the students submit to verify successful completion. The files needed for this version can be accessed from Juster's AFG website.
Teaching Notes and Tips
References and Resources
Juster, T., Principles of Hazard and Risk. http://myweb.usf.edu/~juster/GLY2030/hazard-risk-v3.pdf
Juster, T., Hazards and Risks, Part 1 (podcast). https://learn.usf.edu/webapps/lobj-podcast-bb_bb60/files/_5761749_1/podcast-hazards_risks-part1.mp3
Juster, T., Hazards and Risks, Part 2 (podcast) https://learn.usf.edu/webapps/lobj-podcast-bb_bb60/files/_5761750_1/podcast-hazard_risk-part2.mp3
Wang, Z., Graham, G.B., and Madin, I.P., 2001, Earthquake hazard and risk assessment and water-induced landslide hazard in Benton County, Oregon. Oregon Dept. of Geology and Mineral Industries. [http://water.oregonstate.edu/oakcreek/research/geology/pdf_files/equake%20and%20lanslide%20dogami.pdf]Nelson, A.R., Kelsey, H.M., and Witter, R.C., 2006, Great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone, Quaternary Research 65(3), 354-365.