Predicting Next Year's Population

• Incorporate population change data into a single, simple form
• Use a model to predict population
• Analyze the effects of growing/declining populations

This activity can be used in any course that discusses exponential functions.

This project has students use current population factors to build an exponential growth model $$p(t)=p_0 e^{\alpha t}$$. Students then predict the next five years' population for a country chosen from the CIA's "World Factbook." Predicting Next Year's Population (Acrobat (PDF) 14kB Mar17 13)

• Students will have previously seen simple exponential growth models
• Students must combine birth, death, and migration rates into a single growth factor
• A group project that can be done in 1/2 hour

• Assess the model for appropriate incorporation of the data
• Assess the writing on resource utilization for evidence of critical thinking

• The CIA's "World Factbook"
• Background source: Wikipedia's "Population model"