# Predicting Next Year's Population

#### Summary

This project has students use current population factors to predict the next five years' population for a chosen country from the CIA's "World Factbook."

## Learning Goals

- Incorporate population change data into a single, simple form
- Use a model to predict population
- Analyze the effects of growing/declining populations

## Context for Use

This activity can be used in any course that discusses exponential functions.

## Description and Teaching Materials

This project has students use current population factors to build an exponential growth model $$p(t)=p_0 e^{\alpha t}$$. Students then predict the next five years' population for a country chosen from the CIA's "World Factbook." Predicting Next Year's Population (Acrobat (PDF) 14kB Mar17 13)

## Teaching Notes and Tips

- Students will have previously seen simple exponential growth models
- Students must combine birth, death, and migration rates into a single growth factor
- A group project that can be done in 1/2 hour

## Assessment

- Assess the model for appropriate incorporation of the data
- Assess the writing on resource utilization for evidence of critical thinking

## References and Resources

- The CIA's "World Factbook"
- Background source: Wikipedia's "Population model"

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*Predicting Next Year's Population*