While some of the analyses are a bit fluffy, there are some interesting tidbits. For instance, the resurgence of cupcakes and bacon coincides more or less with the financial crisis. Is there something to learn about humans and our feelings of security in this observation?
So, how important is Halloween shopping to the economy? Is the expected 15% drop in sales a big deal or just a blip? To answer this question, you have to ask "Compared to what?" For instance, Halloween spending is paltry compared with Christmas shopping, which clocks in over 0B. Or, following columnist George Will's line of argument, it is approximately equal to all spending by campaigns for all federal offices in 2012 presidential election cycle. (Halloween has an overall edge in our consumption affections over politics given that spending in non-presidential election years is lower than in presidential cycles.) Alternatively, Halloween spending equals the total spent by all 17,450 K-12 school districts on energy.
So, how do you size up our nation's expenditure on Halloween?
Inequality is a hot topic in the news. Just search the internet for that word in news stories and you find story after story after story describing the current level of inequality or arguing over its consequences. Rarely do these stories carefully consider the way inequality is measured–measurement is just taken as a given.
It turns out, the choice of what to measure is critical; While inequality of pre-tax income has increased dramatically in the past 30 years, inequality of consumption has hardly budged.
I was recently looking at some press releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and saw this item titled "San Mateo, Calif., has largest county 1st quarter 2013 over-the-year wage gain at 14.8%." That's a curious headline because San Mateo is a smallish county among the 335 largest US counties which were the sample for the BLS's report. If you click through the headline to the report itself, in the opening paragraph you'll learn that Fort Bend, TX produced the highest employment growth. Fort Bend is similarly a smallish county.
But before we get all excited about the virtues of small counties, we also learn at the top of the report that Sangamon, IL was the slowest growing county in terms of employment. And, you guessed it, Sangamon is a small county. And Williamson, TX saw the slowest wage growth. I won't even mention Williamson's size.
This recent blogpost on measuring institutional drop-out rates at community colleges provides a brilliant example of the point behind the title of Madison & Steen's Calculation vs. Context. Matt Reed, a dean at a two-year college, shares an interaction he had with a fellow conference panelist on how to measure community college success. Reed notes that our official definition of "dropping out" arguably fits four-year schools better than their two-year peers: "We get penalized when students do a year at the community college and then transfer to a four-year school. Even if they go on to complete the bachelor's successfully, that student still shows up in our numbers as a dropout."
His fellow panelist wasn't ready to let two-year schools off the hook on transfers, though. She points out that while there may be good reasons to transfer, such "churn" often signals dissatisfaction with the institution.
Reed notes that such bean-counting quibbles would be of only modest concern (presumably schools can education prospective students about the meaning of their transfer data) if the President hadn't just announced a plan to tie federal loans to "school performance." Indeed, in a world where a government bureaucrat's definition of a word can spell the doom for tens or hundreds of institutions, we'd better have a citizenry (and political class) that understands the nuances and challenges of creating effective indices. Sadly, I fear we don't live in that world.